We consider crises as critical moments when international actors must act while facing the problem of uncertainty & we show that IR studies struggle to sort out the processes underpinning decisions and actions taken in such crisis moments. 2/9

We illustrate our argument with the global ecological crisis and its uncertainty. We present 3 contrasting methods used by international actors to convert the time of the ecological crisis into decisions and actions. 4/9

1) The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting of the UN which provides biophysical statistics for environmental dimensions of economic activities is close to what Knight calls “estimates of probability”. 5/9

2) Recent financial sustainability reporting standards of the IFRS Foundation bring the ecological crisis into the realm of Knightian statistical probabilities. 6/9

Finally, new developments in green central banking, particularly the “Green Swan” report by Bank for International Settlements are illustrations of Knight’s exercise of judgment in acknowledging the true uncertainty of future states of the world. 7/9

We suggest that this report combined with the work of the Network for Greening the Financial System possibly marks a turning point in taking decisions and actions in times of crisis out of uncertainty, rather than measurable risk. 8/9

As we explain, “decisions and actions in times of ecological crisis must be taken, but given the situation of true uncertainty, they must be taken through the exercise of judgement, as well as with ‘prudence and humility’ (Knight, 1921: 375).” 9/9

Many thanks to Université de Lausanne Faculté des SSP - UNIL (inactif) for the support and O/A! Maybe of interest to @KrdGun Jérôme Deyris @katie_kedward John Hogan Morris @MatPaterson @JacquelineMBest Jeremy Green @monica_dileo @mbabic_1

Getting this paper out was a hard nut to crack! Great indeed to to see it out! 🙏@eurojournIR & Sylvain Maechler Short 🧵👉1a/9

Getting this paper out was a hard nut to crack! Great indeed to to see it out! 🙏@eurojournIR & Sylvain Maechler Short 🧵👉1b/9

Un tout grand merci à l’ensemble des participant·es pour ces partages d’expériences et réflexions critiques sur la notion d'échec. Une fois encore, ce rendez-vous annuel a mis en lumière la pluralité des activités et expériences de recherche au sein de la Faculté !

📢 #AlerteEmploi Pour compléter l'équipe administrative qui soutient son Dicastère Recherche, la Faculté des sciences sociales et politiques recrute un·e adjoint·e à la recherche à 80%. 👉Plus d'infos: bit.ly/458MjFn Institut des Sciences Sociales Université de Lausanne UNIL Sport Sciences