Nick pays into a welfare system designed for a different era. In 1972, each pensioner was supported by 4.5 workers. By 2022, it was 3.3 workers per pensioner. By 2072, just 1.9 workers will support each pensioner. Nick will be carrying twice the load his parents did.

Fantastic to see the pro-parent / demographic discussion getting more and more central

How the fertility collapse began (Edwardian England depicted in 1934)

I can recommend it as an excellent read!

Fascinating and I think fairly persuasive argument that the antinatal campaigns of Asian governments in the latter 20th century really worked— because places exempted from them saw totally different fertility trajectories!

And the demographic consequences of young men and women going their separate ways? The share of young Koreans in relationships has fallen by almost half since 2010, with birth tracing almost exactly the same path 📉

Why is Denmark increasing its pension age - and will Europe follow? youtu.be/FHRLw4PTNeU?si… via YouTube

From the 1960s on the UN terrified the world about overpopulation. East Asian countries in particular listened. Now their populations are ageing disastrously. They should sue the UN in response. ionainstitute.ie/un-agency-fina…

I keep reading that the economy ‘shrunk’. What happened to ‘shrank/ has shrunk’? When did the simple past and perfect get conflated? Is this yet another sign of civilisational collapse?

Seeing as Iran's in the news, ask the leftists there who weren't murdered after '79 how this kind of alliance goes down.

This will come to be as iconic as the clip of Marwa Osman || مروة عثمان hearing of the tragic passing of Sayed Hassan Nasrallah

An important new paper by Geruso and Spears looks at how much of fertility decline is explained by childlessness versus smaller family sizes. "Childlessness explains only 38% of the decline in fertility in the advanced economies." This implies larger families may hold the key! 🧵

Hug your babies and children tight my friends. The culture of death is self defeating and no nation has a future that kills the vulnerable whether it’s their babies or their old/disabled. We will persevere in the end. Whether it is the Spartans or the Nazis - they all failed.

Even the NYT is cottoning on to the need for more children and the case for pronatalism. Inevitably it will mean higher taxes for those without children, a suggestion of which got me branded as an extremist three years ago. The Overton Window is shifting. nytimes.com/2025/06/20/wor…

And for those asking at the event, this is the next Canon Club event. Still four tickets apparently eventbrite.co.uk/e/palladio-bui…

A low birthrate has negative impacts but, at best, very selective immigration only has an ameliorating effect. It is no substitute. Birthrates are heavily affected by culture; so a return to a patriotic, positive, prosperous Britain will help restore them. x.com/AaronBastani/s…

Yesterday, I argued that Turkey’s TFR was 1.48 in 2024, well below replacement level, and has been falling fast since 2014. Today, I want to highlight a few additional points. First: Turkey has the highest within-country TFR variance I’m aware of. In Şanlıurfa, TFR was 3.28 in

“We’ve been talking about productivity growth for 40 years and productivity has fallen. Maybe it’s time to focus on families.” Great to be interviewed at ARC on my paper (linked in thread) on why economic policy needs an entirely new focus if we want to solve our problems. 🧑‍🧑

edwest.co.uk/p/london-under…

Astounding figures. In due course there will be no Europe in Europe.