x.com/i/status/19785… Miran is absolutely right that monetary policy should be forecast driven, not based on backward-looking data. The interviewer's arrogant retort, “but that's not how the Fed operates”, actually highlights the problem. She dismisses Miran's point as if the

This is actually a fantastic thought experiment. What would happen if the Fed set rates based on Fed Funds futures pricing? My initial thought was that rates would just get pinned wherever they happen to be. Why would anyone trade them differently if the Fed will just validate

More evidence supporting my repeated claim that the administration is “turning the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) and the International Development Finance Corp (DFC) into a private equity style sovereign wealth fund vehicle with hundreds of billions to trillion+ in funding

😊 This is absolutely correct, and it's an important point. The DFC reform started gaining momentum well before the current administration. H.R.8926 The DFC Modernization and Reauthorization Act of 2024 passed these critical accounting changes through markup (though it never reached

x.com/i/article/1981…

💰Something caught my eye in the ESF filings. The June monthly shows a curious $1.693bn BIS transaction - right when the debt ceiling was biting. Wonder what that’s about? Random aside, gold traded at $3,386/oz that day. Interesting coincidence: 500k oz would be exactly

Experimenting with “Dream Prompts” to Fight Context Rot in Long Conversations I’ve been testing whether having LLMs “dream” might help prevent context rot - that gradual degradation where models lose track of earlier parts of long conversations as their context windows fill up.

Why are we panicking over every blip in SOFR when the Fed now has a Standing Repo Facility (SRF)? The 2019 repo mkt blow up happened bc the Fed mis-measured unencumbered reserves while not having designed an SRF to police the top of its policy range in case they ever did