'The reason is Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and weaponry to deter Russia’s planes. The Russian glide bombs just completely destroy Ukraine’s defense positions and there is no option but to retreat to new positions.'

'Again, it is because of no U.S. aid package. The last U.S. package in March was $300 million. It was smaller than the aid that Denmark announced on the same day. Since then, nothing. It really makes itself felt on the frontlines.'

'There is no reason to fear that Ukraine's defense might collapse. It is not so tragic. Ukrainian top officers and people close to them are more optimistic than the West is. They say Ukraine might lose some ground in the next months but there is no fear of Russia breaking through…

'But Russia will continue to progress primarily on the eastern front. There are also signs of very strong Russian pressure on areas that Ukraine won back last summer by Robotyne and Verbove.'

'Ukrainian society has finally managed to deal with the change of the commander-in-chief. There were fears that it would divide the society more than it did. Ukrainian people understand that this is not a reason to break up their own society and they need to fight regardless of…

'The frequent missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv and Odessa are a concern. These are large, strategically and symbolically important cities. Russia's goal is to make life as uncomfortable there as possible.'

'This especially applies for Kharkiv where they haven’t been hitting anything else but residential areas over the last weeks. Kharkiv is also so close to the border that Ukraine's air defense can’t do much against the S-300 missiles. Occasionally they also pound the city with…

'Russia also continues to destabilize Moldova. They have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine attacked targets in Transnistria. They are flying the leaders of the Gagauzia region to Moscow. The only aim is destabilization of the country ahead of the presidential elections in autumn.…

'Ukraine's Rada will pass the new mobilization law any day now but the demobilization issues will be handled with separate acts. The troops who have been on the frontline for over 2 years have received some breaks but of course they want more. That said, the same situation is…

'Russian bloggers wrote a few days ago that the new mobilization will be in May. Now they rephrased saying that it definitely will not be in May. The wording is important here. This suggests it can be in June or July.'

'Considering their huge troop losses especially at Avdiivka they will need to announce a new mobilization wave. They can’t man their units gathering between 15-25k troops a month. I doubt they would be able to deploy more than that a month regardless of what they say themselves.…