We wouldn't be suprised if, after the crash happens (assuming it does), one or more of the Mag 7 goes bankrupt.

One of THE essential inputs for a top/crash is excessive margin. Based on our metrics, equity margin is now at the highest on both an absolute and relative basis to all prior mkt peaks outside of the Great Depression. W/r/t GD, our metrics reveal something more disturbing:

The below reflects a toxic but powerful cocktail we're observing in this mkt among more & more investors. A combo of greed/arrogance/complacency/pride, while objective analysis heads out the door. We've warned many times we're in a very dangerous position today, but we've also

It’s time for Econ 101 on the “AI will end scarcity” or “AI will create abundance” arguments as referenced in the chart below: - the term “scarce” is defined as something “limited in supply” -the term “abundant” is defined as something “unlimited in supply” -and crucially the

A toxic but powerful cocktail we're observing in this mkt among more & more investors: A combo of greed/arrogance/complacency/pride, while objective analysis heads out the door. We've warned many times we're in a very dangerous position now (not a wall of worry, but rather

Yes, we've noted several times there is a toxic blend of greed/arrogance/pride/complacency in the market now, and that this blend is powerful. We have NO idea why SPX is still at 6,800 and not 4,000. Be careful folks!

We have argued since last August the US was in danger of entering a recession, and we have patiently waited to see how it has unfolded. We think it’s official: US now in Recession. (must of course wait for NBER to confirm)

It’s entirely possible that the refund checks from the Big Beautiful Bill this spring will go 100% towards gas bills at the pump. If so, this would result in zero stimulus to the US economy that we now believe is in recession.

The below indicative of what we've been warning about: -extreme levels of greed/arrogance/pride of those who think stocks can go up infinitely, regardless of ANY fundamentals or technicals -this is highly toxic and dangerous, and can fuel melt-ups...or can fuel melt-downs

☎️2000 is calling ring ring...ring ring

We are more alarmed than ever that we're on the verge of an AI/QQQ crash that rivals dotcom, and a credit crunch that rivals GFC, and a stagflationary crisis that rivals the 1970s, and a debt fueled boom that is approaching 1929 levels.

Another sign of the extreme greed/pride/complacency coursing through the mkts now. It's gonna end badly.

This is concerning. BLS admitting that the February CPI data out this morning is bogus. Our metrics show inflation building under the surface, ex-war now. Not good.

Uhhh ohhh.....

“That would be a recipe for global [depression]”?

The amount of greed is the mkts now exceeds anything we've seen in 40 years. Brent at $100 & S&P at 6,610 is utterly mind-blowing. Mkts really believe that this will end in a few days and oil will chug through Horumuz next week. Believing in Santa Clause makes a LOT more sense