The $VIX is at the 5th percentile lows (1Y). A viable mean reversion strategy could be long volatility (or equivalent) at this level via 1-3 month time-frame options. $VVIX — volatility of VIX is also at 1Y lows. ;)

$FDAX and $CAC40 -~4.5%+ whilst $ES -~2.25% on latest Trump-Geopolitical shocks. Positioning is still max crowded at 95th percentile crowded for both. Coincidence or edge? You decide. An edge should indicate a higher consistent probability of wins over a large sample size.

SILVER — MONSTER RUN, COMPLETING 46Y PATTERN. Target reached. You could have run this up all the way (and still be in) if you had a wider peak-to-valley risk mandate! For me, protecting open profits is as important money management as managing drawdown on NAV. $SI $SLV

Cocoa $COCO - Target reached, as $CC continues its downward run. Showing the importance of asset-individual charts and targets.

—CW5 WEEKLY MACRO CONTEXT— The dollar debasement continues, not only through the drop of the $DXY but more importantly in the sharp relative rise of commodities, especially precious metals. Interest rates continue to be in the spotlight with the FOMC decision on Wed. Long

$ACWX target reached (whilst $ACWI lags).

$AUD futures, $6A — target reached. What's amazing about this one is how well the stop worked and was NEVER touched during volatility compression.

Swiss Franc $6S $CHF — target reached. Short $USD trades are all winning in recent days.

$BCI Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy (Inflation Proxy) — Incredible 18R and still going. "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" -JL If you haven't read [Reminiscences of a Stock Operator], you MUST.

ICYMI Kevin Warsh tapped for Fed Chair → SELL-OFF in precious and industrial metals EXPLAINED. Dollar debasement trade/Metals melt-up of early January was largely driven by the UNKNOWN fears over a 'Shadow Fed' or a 'Super-dove Loyalist' who would - slash rates aggressively

—CW6 WEEKLY MACRO CONTEXT— Metals entering off-season as Warsh pends confirmation via Senate? CME increase of collateral requirements for metals, likely contributor to drawdown. Whilst $ES is range-bound, $VIX has been rising steadily, since our call of %tile lows (24/12/25).

Re-reading Ray Dalio's Principles and found the section on "Higher Level Thinking" particularly poignant, in the 2026 context where you might replace "you(2)" with "GenAI and you(2)" i.e. our new-normal of the frequent use of Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, etc. "If you(1) see

$MSTR - Target reached. Similar structural targets on $BTC, $ETC - $MSTR is a leveraged short.

March $NG ($NGH2026) contract setting up for a potential squeeze again with a further increase in already extended positioning %tiles after Friday's COT.

—CW7 WEEKLY MACRO EDGE— Until the macro paradigm changes in a big way, trends for what is hot will not change. Since COVID and the 'ChatGPT moment,' what is hot is AI and tech. Nothing about the recent global macro environment indicates a paradigm shift. Long Edge; - We are

$COFF Coffee, target reached. I mostly look at Agriculture as idiosyncratic from global macro forces.

🇺🇸 Interesting point: without healthcare (+123.5k v +48.9k prior), payrolls would have close to 0. Maybe I missed something but I didn't see anything justifying this spike (on the macro front).

Inflation is HOT. $XLB doing a beautiful run.