We are living through history. Only 0.25% of the time in the past century has the S&P 500 managed to rise nine consecutive days. A 1-in-400 or 3 sigma event! Guess what? Fully 80% of the time this dynamic happened in recessionary environments … not to mention just ahead of the

SCAM ALERT! There is an AI scam, a total fraud, using me and my firm in advertisements to pitch penny stocks. Many people have been duped by these fake ads that have been found on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok and have lost a lot of money. These ads have not been taken down

The market is taking these latest tariff tape bombs in stride because it is operating under two well-ingrained beliefs. First, that August 1st will come and go and a new drop-dead date for these crazy tariffs will be announced.  Investors love TACO!  Second, that no matter what

Today’s market rally is a testament to the veracity of the TACO trade. But what if Trump isn’t joking around this time?

The long bond yield just tested the 5% mark yet again. Over the past two decades this has proven to be a firm ceiling and a very juicy entry point.

There was a time when a +0.2% print on the Powell ‘super core’ inflation measure would have ignited a bond rally.  Obviously not today, even though this metric has slowed to a mere +1.1% annual rate from January to June.  All the market sees is the tariff effect starting to

If anyone hears of Tim Cook scheduling a meeting at the Oval Office, I would suggest loading up on AAPL right away.

As everyone marvels at the performance of the U.S. stock market, just remember that in CAD, Aussie Dollar and Yen terms, the S&P 500 is barely up more than 1% for the year; flat against the Kiwi and Sterling; and down 3% in peso terms, down 5% in euro terms and down 6% in Swedish

Jeff Bezos just met with President Trump for over an hour.  Time to load up on AMZN?

For the first time in years, I saw someone under the age of 30 reading a book on the subway. I nearly fell off my seat!

How can either Waller or Bowman (or both) dissent on Wednesday when the market is pricing in the grand total of 3% odds of a rate cut?  Do they have access to a Bloomberg terminal?  Ahhh … both Fed Governors are Trump appointees. I get it!

The virtual stalling-out in payroll growth in the past three months has been a recession predictor with 100% accuracy over the past six decades. Score a win for Bowman and Waller, whose crystal balls are clearer than the rest of the FOMC pack.

Is Trump also going to fire the CEO of the Institute for Supply Management? Because the ISM employment subindex collapsed in July to its lowest level since June 2020. Surely that must also be a politically manipulated number, no?

I’m watching the President on CNBC and the mistruths and misinformation about the BLS have to stop! There is nothing political at all about the revisions, no matter how large. This resides somewhere between a witch hunt and a sham. The problem lies with the depleted business

I could have sworn that I heard President Trump also state on CNBC that gasoline prices are down to $2.20 a gallon. But unless my eyes deceive me, the chart below shows the national average at $3.15 and basically where the price was at the time of the November election. We

I am sitting here waiting to see if Mark Carney decides to fire André Loranger, who heads up Statistics Canada. The agency had the temerity to surprise the consensus and markets today with a -40,800 July employment slump in one of the worst drubbings of the past four years.

The problem with the CPI report was that we got a +0.3% MoM print on the core even though there was no evidence of the tariff effect kicking in - but bond investors know this will happen with a lag.  The real issue was the fact that service sector pricing re-accelerated and that

Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of all the leverage supporting the stock market has been built up just in the past

Either something is really going wrong with another BLS database in the form of CPI rental rates which are running at nearly a +4% YoY pace, or there is something wonky with the St. Louis FRB and Cleveland FRB because their new tenant rent index just collapsed in epic form in Q2.

The core CPI and PPI numbers may end up being troubling for the Fed. It’s one thing to be able to look through the tariff effect on goods prices - but it’s this recent re-acceleration in service sector inflation that is a worry, because this has nothing to do with trade policy.