Synoptic snoozefest continues until the autumn jet stream can make its return to the CONUS.

Current webcam view. Wild.

One reason I've always been drawn to MCV setups is the exclusivity of tornado reports. The environment is a convenient control for ingredients which are exclusively favorable for supercell tornadoes but not necessarily hail or wind. Such that, under closer inspection you may

Long-range model trends are frustratingly persistent with Midwest warmth and drier conditions through late September. Northwest likely going over much wetter, however.

Quite the scenery change in central IL over the last week or so as harvest season is nearing and localized drought conditions continue #ilwx #NOAA21

Tropical Storm Gabrielle has been named in the Central Atlantic. That said, you'll have difficult time identifying it on IR imagery below. Currently a ragged system with a competing upper-level trough just to its north.

Beyond the weekend's immediate forecast, which has plenty of rain chances for MO/IL/IN, there exists a strong signal next week for additional Midwest and TN Valley rains. This area has seen drought classifications increase rapidly in the last 6 weeks.

A 75mb difference between the HAFS and ECMWF forecast for 90W (likely soon to be typhoon) in four days. Would think these differences will inject greater uncertainty into the North Pac Jet and downstream CONUS pattern near the end of the month.

The corn is talking today. Must know the rain is coming.

Super Typhoon #Ragasa is one of the most impressive storms I’ve seen in a while. I can’t get over that crazy truck-tire annular structure with its gigantic eye satellite.

Leviathan.

Hurricane Gabrielle maturing quickly into a Category 3 storm this AM. Fortunately turning well out to sea now, east of Bermuda.

Fall is closed until October at the earliest. 🎃

Watching LCLs fall about 100ft to the ground this AM in Champaign County. Pics 30min apart.

06z ECMWF produces some sort of convective feedback/MCV due to Kansas storms today with its own surface reflection that then further amplifies as the synoptic low over Illinois tomorrow with much more rain across C IL than any other model. In other words, I'm not buying it.

Bad/missed/bias calls are critical to all sports, indeed, they’re human. The spirit of competition and the fan experience itself stretches upward in the opposite direction of this sort of base, sterile precision. A sad day for baseball.

Monday could see a rare occurrence as two tropical cyclones spin within 600mi of one another. The eastern most storm, Humberto, could be a strong hurricane but likely stays out to sea. The westernmost storm, likely Imelda, could very well make landfall in the Southeast as a

Concerning early forecast rainfall amounts for potential Imelda early next week. The system is likely, but not certain, to make landfall in the Carolinas Tuesday. This forecast scenario could yield a significant flash flooding threat (10"+) next week.

Warm and dry conditions persist across much of the Midwest/Ohio Valley through the 10-day forecast. September has seen the influence of a northward shifted Pacific Jet allowing ridging and high pressure to dominate the interior this fall. This lines up with the last few years and

After watching Moana 50 times in the last month, the twins’ successor to Cars at my house, I got curious if anyone actually did “look up decapods”. Sure enough, its lifetime maximum on Google Trends occurred the same winter the movie was released in 2016.