September durable goods orders fell 0.8%, near the market consensus of -1%. August orders were revised lower to -0.8% from flat. Transportation orders fell 3.1% in September. Find out what caused the shift in our latest report from KPMG Economics: bit.ly/48o1USW

Great article Ben Casselman. One illustrative example: daycare/pre-k in Sept CPI up 6% yoy vs. overall 2.4%. Daycare/pre-k comprises 0.7% of CPI but 20-30% of many household budgets. If 20-30% of your budget is rising >2x than avg inflation, you're experiencing inflation

The September #JOLTS report delivered mixed results. Job openings and quits declined while layoffs rose; but hiring picked up. Read more: kpmg.com/us/en/articles…

GDP close to our forecast with growth at 2.8% in 3Q, after 3% in 2Q. Consumer powered ahead and alone accounted for 2.5% of total 2.8% gains. Spending on goods accelerated sharply, while spending on services held to more muted pace of 2Q in 3Q. Housing down second consecutive

PCE inflation lowest since early 2021. At 2.09%, that is about as close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as we have seen since the pandemic-induced inflation took off. The data were a little better than hoped. Consumers continued to power through, draining savings but from a

A perfect storm of events suppressed October payrolls. Hurricanes Helene and Milton and strikes in the aerospace industry conspired to hold job gains to a negligible 12,000 in October. That is the weakest since the Delta variant struck in Dec 2020 but unemployment is

Wow. Construction spending in September hit a four month high, matching the pace of August. Residential condition up on stronger single family construction, while non residential edged down slightly. Chip plants moved sideways but are up 26% from a year ago. Data centers 🔥and

October ISM services PMI rises to 56.0 from 54.9 in September, climbing to its highest level in more than two years. The strength suggests the economy is carrying momentum into the current and final quarter of 2024. In the third quarter, GDP clocked in at a solid growth rate of

#consumercredit update: consumers spending with savings, not plastic linkedin.com/pulse/consumer… via LinkedIn

Hot off the press. Risks: More inflation/less rate cuts. Could even see a reversal in rate-cutting cycle by the Fed. Takes time for policy shifts to show up in overall economy. Key issue - economy is more inflation-prone than it was pre-pandemic. kpmg.com/us/en/articles…

My colleague, Matthew Nestler who watches the care economy, noted that care costs are still rising at a wicked hot pace. In-home elder care was up 9.9% from a year ago in Nov. 🔥 Daycare & preschool up 6.3% from year ago in Nov. Loss of immigration will push higher.

Today, on National Caregivers Day, let's celebrate and acknowledge the hard work and sacrifices of all caregivers. My latest research report shows the strains that the eldercare crisis is having on workers and their families, employers and the US economy: kpmg.com/us/en/articles…