Our research (with Rhys and Tim) summarized in a blog post. We examine the impact of CBDC on financial stability - drawing on novel survey evidence & a structural macroeconomic model with bank runs. Full paper: matthias-rottner.github.io/Files/BJR_CBDC…

With a standard monetary rule & heterogeneous households, beliefs of a coming recession can become self-fulfilling. Monetary rules responding 1 for 1 to the real rate observed in TIPS markets prevent this & give near perfect control of inflation. Tom Holden econometricsociety.org/publications/e…

Workshop on #AI + #Econ. Video available here 👇📺 m.youtube.com/watch?v=_PeQ8K… SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum

How should central banks respond to large surges of inflation? In a new paper, we examine this question in the context of a 'menu-cost' model à la Golosov-Lucas. A short 🧵 1/n (n=9) galonuno.com/uploads/1/3/4/…

The program for Back to Basics and Beyond: New Insights for Monetary Policy Normalisation joint conference with CEPR is now published! Read more and register here: suomenpankki.fi/en/research/se…

New: "Geopolitical risk perceptions" by Yevheniia Bondarenko (Yevheniia Bondarenko), Vivien Lewis (Deutsche Bundesbank), Matthias Rottner (Matthias Rottner) and Yves Schüler (Yves Stephan Schüler). doi.org/10.1016/j.jint… 1/2

This article develops new geopolitical risk indicators based on local newspaper coverage and study the transmission of geopolitical risk shocks using Russia as a case study. Shocks identified using local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy. 2/2

After the recent Nobel prizes, many economists are wondering how recent advances in deep learning may affect economics galonuno.com/uploads/1/3/4/…

The Bundesbank's research centre has resources to hire one or more visiting macro researchers, on contracts from 6 months to 2 years. Ideal for a sabbatical. We would also consider new PhDs who want to spend some time with us before starting a job elsewhere. DM me if interested.

Very happy to host Matthias Rottner in Zurich today UZH Department of Finance @SFI_CH. Matthias presented "Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent Models with Neural Networks" (with Hanno Kase & Leonardo Melosi). Deep Learning + HANK + Estimation!

Last year, the JHU economics ML reading group worked through "Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent Models with Neural Networks" from Matthias Rottner, Hanno Kase, and Leonardo Melosi. Today Qingyuan Fang 方清源 walked us through the authors' code: github.com/tseep/estimati…

Qingyuan prepared his own modified version where he presents a simple and detailed walk through of the first part of their code, going step-by-step through some of the more complicated pieces. Check it out here! github.com/QingyuanFang/K…

Growing geopolitical disruptions, climate change and a bumpy transition to green energy threaten to make commodity price shifts larger and more frequent going forward. Read more here bis.org/publ/bisbull96…

Can artificial intelligence be used to solve and estimate HANK models? A neural-network-based approach to estimate a non-linear HANK model highlights the crucial interaction between aggregate and idiosyncratic risk bis.org/publ/work1241.…

Excited to see our paper now available as a BIS Working Paper as well!📄✨ If you are interested in our method, we have also released an initial set of example codes—check them out! github.com/tseep/estimati…

How does ambitious climate policy affect financial stability and how relevant are such "Climate Minsky Moments" for the macroeconomiy and welfare? Matthias Rottner and I provide an answer through the lenses of a quantitative nonlinear DSGE model: cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

Climate Minsky moments: Why they may matter less than expected Matthias Kaldorf matthiaskaldorf Deutsche Bundesbank, Matthias Rottner Matthias Rottner Bank for International Settlements ow.ly/2TEe50UTPYW

I have a new working paper on solving complex life-cycle models with deep learning. Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1txCSkw… Python toolbox: github.com/NumEconCopenha…

How does the inflation environment shape the effects of monetary policy? High-frequency data show that, in a high-inflation regime, monetary policy shocks strongly amplify labour income inequality and aggregate consumption bis.org/publ/work1271.…

The BIS Multisector Model, a new macroeconomic model featuring a detailed production network and accompanied by a ready-to-use toolbox, analyses economic dynamics and monetary policy reactions in more than 80 economies. bit.ly/48f0UT8