There are a ton of so called Macro experts out there with an opinion on the upcoming Federal Reserve dot plot. Almost none of these are surgically formed Heres is a surgical approach to it 6 members wrote down 3 2024 dots in Dec SEP. I think these members are: Daly, Barr,

The original comment sounds like using MMT to fund, possibly, household stimulus? x.com/stephaniekelto…

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Very interesting look by Martin Lynge Rasmussen into official descriptions (from SAFE) of capital flight from China over the years: moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/anatomy-of-c…

Here is a simple chart that shows that 'nobody has a clue what the terminal rate is' The 10Y rate follow the 2Y rate. Expectations about the near-term, is guiding expectations about the long-term. There is not much anchor beyond that... yellow is the Fed funds green is 2Y UST

In the 12 months ending March 2024, China ran a goods trade surplus of $844B, however only $411B has been repatriated. Two of the three drivers of this form of capital flight are unlikely to be reversed. Martin Lynge Rasmussen edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

FDI into #China fell sharply in Q2 and hit a record-weak -$15bn, meaning that direct foreign investors withdrew money from China. The decline was driven by a combination of weaker greenfield (new) investment, though repatriation of retained earnings also dipped further into

#Chinese equities have seen record-large outflows so far this year as lackluster growth keeps investors hesitant and policymakers patient. $CNY #China #USDCNY

New substack out: China's great carry trade to unwind? History suggest that Dollar weakness could unleash $20bn/month in FX sales. But will this time be different?open.substack.com/pub/moneyinsid…

The Wall Street Journal interviewed our senior strategist Martin Lynge Rasmussen on Chinese capital flows: “Five or 10 years ago if you were a Chinese person you could put your money in real estate and have a way of growing your wealth,” he said. “That is not by any means attractive anymore,” though recent

Congratulations to our friend and colleague Scott Bessent, on his nomination as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary! We are proud to have worked closely with Scott for many years and very happy see him take on a crucial role in the new administration, where his unique experience will

A chart to reinforce a super technical point made by Alex Etra and Martin Lynge Rasmussen of Ex Ante. The rise in the state commercial banks net foreign assets in December maps in part to a strange rise in domestic fx deposits in December 1/2

Our Senior Strategist, Martin Lynge Rasmussen's (Martin Lynge Rasmussen) latest Substack, exploring the role of Chinese exporters in potentially funding hidden FX intervention, was recently featured in the Financial Times (Financial Times) Alphaville “Further Reading” section. The analysis examines