The Good Cheer -Journalism double is paying a pretty awful $14.86 for $2. The win parlay will pay better if Journalism is greater than 2.1 to 1.

Implied edge from the difference between the win and imputed double odds. Sovereignty paid $8.98 per dollar wagered and had an estimated 13.4% win probability from the doubles so his expected return per dollar was 20c. Sandman reduced takeout by 5.3%.

Breakage to the penny is coming to New York effective 9/1/25! Expect an extra ~$10 million/yr back in hands of players. Thanks to the great team at NYRA that never gave up on this. And to the leadership of Adam Koenig damon thayer who showed bravery in going first in Kentucky

My 82yo dad is still hard at work. Here he is on the Remnant podcast with Jonah Goldberg discussing his new book. open.spotify.com/episode/3ZkoYm…

Imputed Preakness win odds from the Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double. $1.044mm in the pool. The actual win odds will be flatter. The $15 will pay to Journalism equates to just over evens given the $7 payout on Margie’s Intention.

Here's four parts on the Preakness exacta pools. Read the 4 images below. Pari-mutuel betting can be great, but real damage IS being done to retail players because CAWs aren't better controlled. Confidence is shot. But it doesn't mean markets are rigged, either. Questions?

Implied edge from the difference between the Preakness win and imputed double odds. Journalism paid $2 per dollar wagered and had an estimated 46.07% win probability from the doubles so his expected return per dollar was -7.8c. Sandman reduced takeout by 4.6% (5.3% in the Derby).

Last-cycle bet share proxies CAW activity. NYRA data shows CAW participation/growth, as CAWs aren’t allowed in Win, Late P5, or P6 pools. The early vs. late P5 gap is the clearest signal. Below is avg last-cycle share by pool at the Aqu winter meet, sorted by change from ’22–’25.

Imputed Belmont odds from the two day double. $351k bet.

Diving into the tote data that my colleague Nick McKinney and I have collected since 2019. Put words around the table I posted a few weeks ago. Thanks to the TDN for publishing it. Hopefully more to come.

"Retail players are losing the money that CAW is winning, which in the long run is unsustainable." How does NYRA's Tote operator change, which occurred in the fall of 2023, alter Gramm and McKinney's CAW analysis findings? Daniel Ross reports. thoroughbreddailynews.com/caw-analysis-o…

In the last book there were zero races written for the Wilson chute. In the new book there are 30. 😩

So far so good at Del Mar. Last cycle odds changed of the winners of the first five races. Last column is the percent of overall win handle bet in the last cycle. It averaged 15% over the first two weeks.

Here are the Del Mar last cycle odds movements and pct of total handle for Thursday.

Episode 50 of the Bet With the Best podcast (sponsored by 🏇 AmWager 🏇) is now available. This is Part 1 of a discussion on CAWs with Marshall Gramm Marshall Gramm Link to pod & timestamp below. …-with-the-best-podcast.simplecast.com/episodes/bet-w… m.youtube.com/playlist?list=…

Great pod on using data to drive thoroughbred ownership, sales and claiming decisions. open.spotify.com/episode/2qKUc6…