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Market Check

@marketcheck1

Independent grain marketing agency, advisory and managed program provider representing Australian grain growers

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linkhttp://www.marketcheck.com.au calendar_today22-05-2013 03:32:02

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🚢ABS data shows another strong month for #chickpeas, with Feb = 299kt. Total 25-26 exports are now 2.1MMT. Export volume will fall significantly from here, but its likely ABARES will increase their production estimates given export pace. India 🇮🇳 has taken 77% of the volume.

🚢ABS data shows another strong month for #chickpeas, with Feb = 299kt. Total 25-26 exports are now 2.1MMT. Export volume will fall significantly from here, but its likely ABARES will increase their production estimates given export pace. India 🇮🇳 has taken 77% of the volume.
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Adding this to to unusual things we've seen in markets over the past week or so - MATIF rapeseed is down €9 overnight, which in AUD terms is nearly a A$50/t move in one session!

Adding this to to unusual things we've seen in markets over the past week or so - MATIF rapeseed is down €9 overnight, which in AUD terms is nearly a A$50/t move in one session!
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We're into the 2nd month of the footy & we're seeing movement on the leaderboard! Sadly, our own Tom Basnett leads the AFL (ineligible for the prize🙏). In the NRL, Peter from Parkes has shot out of the blocks, eyes firmly on that 1st prize of a $2k donation to a local club!

We're into the 2nd month of the footy & we're seeing movement on the leaderboard!
Sadly, our own Tom Basnett leads the AFL (ineligible for the prize🙏).
In the NRL, Peter from Parkes has shot out of the blocks, eyes firmly on that 1st prize of a $2k donation to a local club!
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Plenty of growers (esp. in SNSW/VIC & SA) are still waiting for a break to start the 25/26 season, with the BOM releasing a new May outlook today which is not very promising. Lets hope they get this wrong, which would be a first🤥. June onwards looks more upbeat🤞🤞

Plenty of growers (esp. in SNSW/VIC & SA) are still waiting for a break to start the 25/26 season, with the BOM releasing a new May outlook today which is not very promising. Lets hope they get this wrong, which would be a first🤥. June onwards looks more upbeat🤞🤞
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🚢🚢 ABS March-25 export data for Aus🇦🇺: #wheat: 2.1MMT (⬇️875kt from Feb). China still missing, Indo/Thai picking up slack. #barley: 840kt, so-so with China🇨🇳 taking 715kt alone. #canola: 906kt which is a record month🚀🚀. Few 24-25 production estimates need updating.

🚢🚢 ABS March-25 export data for Aus🇦🇺: 

#wheat: 2.1MMT (⬇️875kt from Feb). China still missing, Indo/Thai picking up slack. 

#barley: 840kt, so-so with China🇨🇳 taking 715kt alone. 

#canola: 906kt which is a record month🚀🚀. Few 24-25 production estimates need updating.
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Our CEO Nick Crundall featured on the ABC SW VIC Rural Report with Angus Verley. Nick will be contributing from time to time so make sure to tune in on Wednesdays at 6:20am! Listen using the link, Nick features from the 11min mark: abc.net.au/listen/program…

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ABS March #chickpea export data shows 73kt was shipped for the month, down significantly from 294kt in February. The chickpea export program is all but done now for the 24-25 season, with a monumental effort by all involved to shift ~2MMT, primarily to India.

ABS March #chickpea export data shows 73kt was shipped for the month, down significantly from 294kt in February. The chickpea export program is all but done now for the 24-25 season, with a monumental effort by all involved to shift ~2MMT, primarily to India.
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#barley prices are rising across Australia as conditions continue to deteriorate on the East Coast & SA. Exports have also been strong (71% to 🇨🇳) which has kept a good bid in the market. NNSW/QLD markets are lagging given the better conditions & heavier stocks situation.

#barley prices are rising across Australia as conditions continue to deteriorate on the East Coast & SA. Exports have also been strong (71% to 🇨🇳) which has kept a good bid in the market. NNSW/QLD markets are lagging given the better conditions & heavier stocks situation.
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#wheat has been slower to respond to worsening conditions in parts of Aus. A more comfortable stock situation/sluggish offshore mkt is weighing on prices. This isn't to say there is no 'drought premium', its just being seen more in our relative strength, than outright prices.

#wheat has been slower to respond to worsening conditions in parts of Aus. A more comfortable stock situation/sluggish offshore mkt is weighing on prices. This isn't to say there is no 'drought premium', its just being seen more in our relative strength, than outright prices.
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May (and the months before) was a tough month for the majority of the Australian cropping regions. This has left many in southern areas waiting anxiously for a break and sweating on the BOM's crayons being right this time!

May (and the months before) was a tough month for the majority of the Australian cropping regions. This has left many in southern areas waiting anxiously for a break and sweating on the BOM's crayons being right this time!
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ABARES June Crop Report (YoY change): Wheat production: -10% Barley production: -3% Canola production: -6% Lentil production: +17% Chickpea production: -17% Canola area is down ~8% in NSW/VIC/SA, offset by +6.3% in WA. Nationally, barley area is +2%, while wheat is -3%.

ABARES June Crop Report (YoY change): 
Wheat production: -10% 
Barley production: -3%
Canola production: -6%
Lentil production: +17%
Chickpea production: -17%

Canola area is down ~8% in NSW/VIC/SA, offset by +6.3% in WA. Nationally, barley area is +2%, while wheat is -3%.
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A solid week for rainfall across Australia. Very welcome rain across parts of VIC and SA, putting growers in the race at least for this season. Follow up rain will be essential given low soil moisture levels. EP didnt get much which is hard to see. Fingers crossed more to come!

A solid week for rainfall across Australia. Very welcome rain across parts of VIC and SA, putting growers in the race at least for this season. Follow up rain will be essential given low soil moisture levels. EP didnt get much which is hard to see. Fingers crossed more to come!
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🚢🚢ABS Apr-25 export data for Aus🇦🇺: #wheat: 2.5MMT (⬆️414kt M-o-M). Indo/Korea did the heavy lifting. NSW exports were a season high, which is needed to reduce stocks. #barley: 680kt (⬇️160kt M-o-M).🇨🇳 took ~400kt. #canola: 563kt (⬇️343kt M-o-M). Record Oct-Apr exports🚀

🚢🚢ABS Apr-25 export data for Aus🇦🇺: 

#wheat: 2.5MMT (⬆️414kt M-o-M). Indo/Korea did the heavy lifting. NSW exports were a season high, which is needed to reduce stocks.

#barley: 680kt (⬇️160kt M-o-M).🇨🇳 took ~400kt.

#canola: 563kt (⬇️343kt M-o-M). Record Oct-Apr exports🚀
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2025-26 #canola prices are historically strong at ~$830 port equiv in VIC/SNSW/SA, with NNSW a discount. Our relative value to MATIF has firmed given the tough start across major 🇦🇺 canola growing regions. Given this & the risks ahead, grower forward selling has been very light.

2025-26 #canola prices are historically strong at ~$830 port equiv in VIC/SNSW/SA, with NNSW a discount. Our relative value to MATIF has firmed given the tough start across major 🇦🇺 canola growing regions. Given this & the risks ahead, grower forward selling has been very light.
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Come and join the Market Check team! We're looking for a Commodity Advisor. The role is based out of our Wagga Wagga office, however we're open to someone based elsewhere in regional NSW! Apply through the link or send an email to [email protected] seek.com.au/job/84996223?r…