Real consumption spending on #services continued the recovery in Q4, and stood 2.3% above pre-Covid, up from 1.1% in Q3. Once Omicron wave passes, spending rotation from goods to services should continue, alleviating supply chain issues.

Not impressed. Before Covid we never bothered looking at #retail sales data in real terms given inflation so low (<2% YoY) for so long but today inflation is running high (+7.5%) so we should price-adjust retail sales data to have a better pulse of sales volume. #shipping

China's latest Covid lockdowns have done more to push long-term supply chain diversification away from China than all the geopolitical tensions and trade wars of the last several years. It is Topic A in many corporate boardrooms.

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I stay away from IMF GDP forecasts. They usually seem out of date.

"When someone chooses to put a 53ft container vs a 40ft one on a vessel, and they think they've made the right decision for their company, probably they did, but have they made the right decision for the system as a whole? They have not." - Shekar Natarajan (AEO).

These The Wall Street Journal charts point to the importance, when looking at nominal data, of factoring in both the overall and compositional effects of high and persistent #inflation. Also note that the underlying forces of both demand switching and demand destruction are likely to vary over time

Falling spot rates, strong imports give rise to trans-Pac disconnect JOC_Updates shar.es/afrqVi via JOC Very good read. Thanks Bill Mongelluzzo Cathy Roberson

Retailers and logistics operators are struggling to find space to store the flood of goods that have swamped warehouses and weighed on their balance sheets. wsj.com/articles/retai… via The Wall Street Journal

How can the decline of Asia-US container spot rates be accelerating if ships are still full & ocean capacity is static? US retail importers are in less of a hurry to receive more cargo at clogged warehouses. You heard it first at JOC shar.es/afsO47

Had a shipper tell me this week they are using transload for products that need to be in store now, and rail for products where they have excess inventory, using long rail dwells as “free storage.” You have to adapt to the environment.

Zero-Covid policy continues to disrupt domestic activity (consumer spending, business investment, housing activity) while constraining global supply chains

There will obviously be more Fed hikes in the future.

Go USA!!

Labor supply very tight.

Betsey Stevenson, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, on the potential that economics creates. Forward Thinking on bringing the joy to economics ▶️ mck.co/3ZSWye6

🚘 Getting more and more expensive to own a car… ➡️ The average monthly car payment for new cars is $729. ➡️ The average monthly car payment for used cars is $528. ➡️ The average cost of car insurance is about $168 per month. Via Bankrate bankrate.com/loans/auto-loa…

#Inventory supply is leveling out. #Consumer growth driving this globally & recession risks starting to ease.—Williamson #TPM24

Global growth impact to #container volume. Red Sea delays will result in short-term price increases but will level out. Inflation will move slowly so not particularly scary.—Williamson #TPM24

NRF confirms the rise in #retail demand, driven by a variety of sectors including #automotive & #energy.—Nixon #TPM24