3 macro things that the Trump-Elon feud shows imo 1. There is no apettite among politicians to cut spending because it’s politically untenable - meaning you can't get reelected. That means that inflation is here to stay. So bet on inflation continuing and being in a long term

mkts assigning huge mcap to $CRCL is bringing out animal spirits so lacking in this cycle...$515 bill "bit bearish" 😂

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another new high for $CRCL if mkt wants to chase this and then chase every stablecoin stock/crypto higher that's good for us

$CRCL IPO is wild - 34 mill. shs issued out of 78.1 mill total shs outstanding (43%) - most IPOs are 15% - 25%. - its not just float scarcity driving price - lockup is in early/mid December - this could keep it going for longer than you think

Good commentary from ARK Invest on $CRCL & stablecoins

$CRCL enthusiasm spreading to $COIN

Debt out the wazoo with no end in sight

China deal cements 55% tariff rates a profit margin crusher. Mkts though are pricing peak profit margins for the foreseeable future.

tariffs are flowing in. no sign of tariff being passed on to consumers. who is paying? China, importers, businesses. tariffs will hit profit margins in 2Q earnings

With One Big Beautiful Bill nearly done, attention moves to bond buyers to persuade them buy treasuries with 30 yr & 10 yr yields at 4.8% & 4.2%

There's big demand for short term treasury bills at 4.2%. However I doubt there's a $1 - $2 trillion that wants to buy 30 yr & 10 yr bonds at 4.2% & 4.8%. ST yields need to come down to 2% - 3% or LT yields need to go higher to 5% - 6% to get bonds sold.

Fed wants insurance that tariffs won't create inflation before cutting rates reflecting bond mkt viewpoint that LT inflation is not under control. If/when Fed cuts, we'll see a market shock as 30 yr & 10 yr yields blow out and break out to new highs.

Bond buyers are now in a faceoff are now controlling the narrative on interest rates not the Fed. I'm closely watching the 30 yr and 10 yr rates, Gold & Bitcoin. Imo they are signalling higher LT bond yields leading to a mkt shock/surprise.

2H 2025 is going to be difficult - profit margins are going lower because of tariffs - interest rate spike surprise is better than 50/50 - at ATHs, most people are unprepared for both

Imo Gold/silver, Bitcoin, energy, defensive healthcare and other scarcity plays are what you want as companies guide to lower profits starting with 2Q earning and as the LT yield suprise hits

LT bond yield surprise imo = $FNMA $FMCC being released soon/sooner so they can lever up & buy MBS for mortgage rate control like they used to do pre-conservatorship else risk mortgage rates blowing out to 9% - 10%

This development in banking regulation (easing leverage ratios for banks to buy more treasuries) is a sign imo that the LT rate surprise/shock scenario is something that US treasury thinks is likely and so they are prepping financial system for it

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