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Ich nutze die Gelegenheit, um ein paar Gedanken zum #EEG zu teilen. Nach 25 Jahren ist es Zeit für eine Bilanz. Es gibt Licht – und Schatten. Fangen wir mit dem Licht an 👇 #EEG25 #Energiewende

Journalismus und Wirtschaft studieren TU Dortmund Institut für Journalistik: Topprogramm – inklusive Volontariat (z. B. Handelsblatt , WDR , ZDF , Süddeutsche Zeitung SWR RB SR HR und vielen anderen). Hier erklärt mein Studi Bennet Brinkmann, wie das bei uns so läuft👇 youtu.be/cEdLJlu6qfw

Interesting to see some basic demand theory applied to tariff choices. So… What’s wrong with it? Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not. 1/2

I guess that happens if you extrapolate your local diff in diff regression and base policy on it…that‘s why some of us build general equilibrium models 😉

"How do changes in the unemployment insurance system affect unemployment and labor market dynamics? This paper highlights the important role of changing separation rates." New paper from Ben Hartung, Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn: restud.com/unemployment-i…

In SiliconContinent today I review three key risks for a financial crisis: - Hugely leveraged US Treasury Basis trade: Kasyap et al. (2025) - Smaller Banks CRE: Jiang et al. (2024) - Larger banks' link with shadow banks/REITs: Acharya et al. (2024) siliconcontinent.com/p/three-hidden…

The main effect of tariff insanity: Uncertainty poisoning supply networks, degrading a lot of relationships at once. That scar tissue will linger for a long time. 1/

*Trade war: my theory of the case* 1. What is the goal/ideal outcome/trump admin hopes: 10% tariff across the board with no retaliation + direct non-tariff favors from other countries to settle this at 10% + a possible full-scale bilateral trade war with China. (1/n)

Is this a real question?! If so, here is the answer: As long as you guys keep talking instead of acting. Trump is pretending to be peacemaker to help Russia destroy Ukraine. If Europe doesn't act, the blood of those children and civilians is on your hands, too.

Here is the portfolio share in stocks by likely political affiliation of account holder after 2016 election. R's bought equity and did better. Assuming the same rebalancing after Oct 2024, R's are now averaging more losses due to their political beliefs. mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/doc…

Macroeconomics is the natural predator of foolish regimes.

you should read also this Peterson Institute post by Maury Obstfeld. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Inzwischen sollte es jeder begriffen haben, wer dort im weissen haus sitzt, wem er loyal ist und was das für osteuropa und uns und auch die nato bedeutet.

New paper on recent US tariffs with Matt Rognlie and Adrien Auclert Our focus: effects of temporary increases in tariffs (“tariff shocks") Three Qs: 1 Will tariffs lead to a recession? 2 Will they reduce the trade deficit? 3 Why are they not appreciating USD? (as in std theory) 🧵

Die weltgeschichtliche Dimension des Verrats durch Trump nicht nur an der Ukraine, den europaeischen und sonstigen Alliierten, sondern auch an Amerika als Idee selbst kann gar nicht ueberschaetzt werden.

Nobody should be surprised if the US dumps a dead cat deal at Europe’s door. Trump might simply tell Europe to “take it or leave it”. Sadly, it is not currently apparent that Europe is ready to be put in this dilemma. But ready or not, leave it we must. Europe would face a

Robin Brooks Michael Pettis Spain was never going to leave the euro — with or without Draghi’s “whatever it takes.” For the generation of my parents — who have long been the median voters in Spain — membership in Europe and participation in the euro represented the ultimate insurance policy against a

Why didn’t electrical engineers forecast the Iberian electricity crisis?

Real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in Q1. The underlying numbers are very extreme--with an enormous increase in imports and inventories. My preferred measure of "core GDP" a better signal, up at a 3.0% annual rate (see next)

THREAD: It is clear that something has gone horribly wrong in European energy policy. How did this happen? Why did the entire political center go along with this? My views on the anatomy of an error from our post today. 1/11🧵