Even if stock markets react negatively to negative sentiment: ▪️The declines are steep (~15%) but short-lived (~100 days). ▪️The recovery is rapid in the next few quarters. This is the case if there is not a recession and my team, and I do not forecast a recession at the moment.

I advised my colleagues to hold or short the market many weeks ago. As a macro strategist, my work is to analyze aggregate real-financial dynamics and flag risks to the fund managers. Now I expect more falls, but I expected a bounce on Q2. I am still waiting any tax cut news.

$DAL EPS guidance for Q1: $0.30-$0.50 vs. $0.70-$1.00. The statement of Delta: “The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand”

#Macro #Vix #Rotation As the US market experiences a sell-off, capital rotates toward other markets. ▶️China and Europe are on the rise and benefiting from this shift. A dynamic rebalancing of global markets. ▶️Is there still upside potential in those markets? I think so.

JP Morgan changes the rating of US stocks from Overweight to Range Bound. The investment bank expects U.S. stocks to fluctuate within a specific range, consistently hitting highs and lows without breaking a clear trend.

There is a divorce between the company $Tesla and the ticket $TSLA. The second was victim of speculation. It is far from the fundamentals of other huge companies. I expected more declines on this ticket. Gainify

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US CPI YOY ACTUAL 2.8% (FORECAST 2.9%, PREVIOUS 3.0%) $MACRO

"Learn it. Know it. Live it." - Brad

The selling side of the financial markets is misleading if we ignore the macroeconomic environment. Neither of these ratings will achieve their objective if current volatility does not decrease. Even if that is that is the case, I am not that confident on these ratings.

#FED has a lot of confidence about inflation getting back to long-term targets. They even say that their simulations include full retaliation of trade partners. Well, they rose inflation projections, but they are still expecting two rate cuts. I consider that the Fed is stuck,

🧨Some EU central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the Fed to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said told Reuters 🧨 reuters.com/markets/some-e…

NOOOOoooOooOoOOooOoooOOOOOooooOOOooOoO

Who’s selling these?

Ok, after the spring meetings of the IMF-World Bank, I am back. Equity markets in Europe and US equity index futures are in retreat after political turmoil in Germany and worries about the trade war dampened sentiment, although Asia had a positive session.

Today the market erased some loses of last friday. But we will see later the consecuences of the credit rating downgrade

While retail investors are buying the dip, Fund managers are decreasing their position

Anchored (inflation) expectations are critical to everything we do, the have to be fully committed to the 2% target