The CAMA RBA Shadow Board outcome for November 2023 is available now: bit.ly/49BgGpN @WarwickMcKibbin ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

Econ PhD. You invented Econ PhD.

Wait, aren’t Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen “super-nerds”? This is peak ozpol cultural-cringey anti-intellectualism

CAMA working paper (Vol: 24/2024): ‘Trend-Cycle Decomposition After COVID’, by Güneş Kamber IMF, James Morley and Benjamin Wong Monash University Read it at: bit.ly/3Vwhl7b ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

Sometimes trend-cycle decompositions are misspecified in the sense that assumed random walk trends display serial correlation in their estimates. In our new JBES article, Ben Wong, Brian TD Tran, and I propose a simple correction for this and estimate r* doi.org/10.1080/073500…

Le Directeur de l'ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel 🇨🇮, Dr. #Hugues_KOUADIO, a procédé à l'ouverture de l'Université d'été (ASSE) 2024, ce vendredi 31 mai 2024. Il a souhaité à ses hôtes le traditionnel "AKWABA". Ministère de l’Economie, du Plan et du Dév , The Econometric Society ,IRD.fr , Oxford Martin School , Quantitative Economics,BCEAO_Officiel

▶️Prof #JAMES_MOLRLEY de University of Sydney a instruit les participants sur le cycle économique avec les sources des changements persistants dans l'écart de production et le taux de chômage. Ministère de l’Economie, du Plan et du Dév , The Econometric Society ,Africa Higher Ed. Centers of Excellence-ACE Impact ,Oxford Martin School , IRD.fr , Agence Française de #Développement (AFD) 🇫🇷 🇪🇺

#ASSE2024: "Business cycle: sources of persistent changes in the output gap and unemployment rate", James Morley of University of Sydney presented the importance of good output gap estimations using trend-cycle decomposition from web-based user friendly tools. ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel BCEAO_Officiel

Thank you to ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel for giving me the opportunity to give lectures on trend-cycle decomposition at the Africa Summer School in Econometrics. The group of PhD students from many countries provided brilliant questions and we had fun trying out new series in bnfiltering.com

For everyone who was at the Dolomiti Macro Meetings, I’m sharing the results for the Norwegian output gap from the BN filter website bnfiltering.com/#/apply?m=CLVM…

Sure 13 papers in 2.5 years are impressive, but have you ever had 13 appendices in 1 paper?

New CAMA working paper (Vol: 52/2024): ‘How Does Tax and Transfer Progressivity Affect Household Consumption Insurance?’, by Yunho Cho Jinan University, James Morley University of Sydney and Aarti Singh University of Sydney. Read it at: bit.ly/4cron1X ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

The cutest part of the DNC: Kamala Harris’ nieces teach America how to pronounce her first name as Kerry Washington helps. I’m sure Trump will continue to disrespect her and say it wrong but oh well. We won’t have to deal with him much longer if you vote!

my work calendar completely packed this week

Global forces drive r-star 📉 Morley James Morley & Wong show global shocks drove most of the decline in r-star for 7 advanced open economies since the GFC, but local shocks still matter—leaving a role for tracking domestic r-stars. 🔗 bit.ly/3YHGEnk ANU Crawford School of Public Policy