I think the probability that Biden isn't the nominee on Nov. 5 is closer to underrated than overrated. Probably won't involve him giving up the office rationally or easily. But there are a lot of bullets to dodge:

What the hell is happening indeed

That movement was supposed to go in the opposite direction after the first debate…

Quick thread for my non-UK followers on a few things to watch in today's 🇬🇧 election. Exit poll 10pm should tell us whether MRP polls suggesting Tory wipeout, or conventional polls suggesting a mere landslide, are right. Or whether both are wrong and it's a much closer thing 1/

"Just 27 per cent of Americans believe that the president has the cognitive ability to serve another term. The number for Trump is 50 per cent. If that gap does not terrify Democrats, it is hard to know what would." Me on why time is precious and running out.

I agree with Charles Michel here ;-)

🎧 Thanks to Matthias Matthijs and Daniela Schwarzer for joining me to discuss the recent elections in Britain and France. Far-right parties did not win, but they fared better than newspaper headlines suggest. cfr.org/podcasts/elect…

Always a pleasure to join Council on Foreign Relations’s legend James M. Lindsay on The President’s Inbox. Listen for Daniela Schwarzer’s insights rather than my own ;-)

🎧 On this episode of The President's Inbox podcast, Matthias Matthijs and Daniela Schwarzer join @jamesmlindsay to discuss the results and consequences of the snap elections in France and the United Kingdom. on.cfr.org/4cEa2zZ

With the confirmation today of the formation of the AfD-led Europe of Sovereign Nations group, the EP now has 3 groups on the right of the EPP, who together have 187 MEPs (26%). So, here's the line-up ahead of the vote on VdL (compared to the outgoing EP):

Need to catch up on the NATO Summit and UK and French elections? Experts Dr. Liana Fix, Matthias Matthijs, @SCMallaby, and Charles Kupchan analyzed developments and outlined what to know in this conversation: on.cfr.org/4czMUTi

If Rishi Sunak calls an election now, he can benefit from the Euro 2024 feelgood factor.

The second round of France’s snap legislative elections on July 7 delivered a surprising outcome due to the strategically smart combining of rival political forces on the left and center, writes Matthias Matthijs. on.cfr.org/4cXXKSD

Trump says presidents have the right to influence Fed policy ow.ly/ocWg105EONI

What could possibly go wrong? Erik Jones

🎧Rush Doshi joined me to discuss US strategy toward China. We discussed the democracy-autocracy divide, the Thucydides trap, "peak China," how well Washington is managing the relationship, and the role allies should play in US policy, among other topics. cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/a…

I have reached an agreement with the Radical Left Democrats for a Debate with Comrade Kamala Harris. It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business, on Tuesday, September 10th, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Rules

ICYMI

Please join us on September 12 as we discuss the summer of European elections with Professors R. Daniel Kelemen, Matthias Matthijs, Kathleen R. McNamara, and Abraham Newman. RSVP and find more info here: eventbrite.com/e/summer-of-eu…

2 weeks is a long time in politics