How It Started vs. How It's Going: May rate cut edition!

If you haven’t seen last week’s numbers here they are per tsa.gov. Last week’s average was 2.458 million passengers and this is yet to be released by Kalshi (still says 2.492 for two weeks ago). This coming week, all data screams below 2.5 million as well.

March's retail sales report came in high at 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected.

Kalshi’s Q1 GDP market adjusted in real-time, jumping from 2.6% to nearly 2.8%.

Compare that to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. It hasn't updated since 4/10. It might update in a few hours, if we're lucky.

A Kalshi trader made $100,000 last week.

SLAIS reached the top of the Kalshi leaderboard with a relatively simple strategy.

Here is how he got it done 🧵

Thank you Zendaya and Kalshi!

People on Kalshi are making BANK this month. I'm up a respectable $4,200 and that's only good for 10th place on the leaderboard and 20th place overall.

best #tbt is a winning #tbt

People seem pretty bullish on the 'Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' movie today

The $$$ you see on the ⁦Kalshi⁩ leaderboard when inflation comes in hot

QE Infinity I used Kalshi in Jan to bet on 0 Cuts... Up 500% right now lol

Indeed a very happy inflation day for this guy 🚀

For the 3rd straight month, inflation came in higher than expected at 3.5% YoY.

Our markets priced this outcome at 16%.

Kalshi's CPI forecast was slightly off at 3.4% (like everyone), but overall we're killing it compared to big banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.🧵👇

All the news I need I get from the Kalshi app

The March inflation report came in slightly higher than expected at 3.5 YoY.

Kalshi traders had priced the chance of 3.5% or above at 16%.

Billie Eilish just announced her new album and it's already leading the competition for #1 in the US!

Kalshi just listed a market and traders are saying the odds of it hitting #1 are 84%.

Inflation numbers are out:

The consensus is that inflation will be higher, this is now the third straight month.

What will Powell do next?

🚨🚨🚨

Oh my god... TikTok Ban odds just jumped to 75%.

Is it actually the end of TikTok in the US?

Why is slightly older Neil Kashkari opening an investigation on Elon Musk?

totally cloudy in Buffalo - glad I hedged on Kalshi

Remember, if JPow looks directly at the eclipse, we get six more months without a rate cut.