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In any given year, the average decline in the benchmark index is roughly -14.3%. [Source: Strategas 2025.02.28] That is the average, so how should we feel about a 5% correction during a period in the calendar [post-inauguration] we know is choppy historically? Stay calm for now.

Could the 10yr US Treasury Note yield fall below 4% by mid-March due to the US Treasury's debt ceiling liquidity boost? The US is injecting billions into the financial system to pay govt bills Usually this leads to lower bond yields & a weaker US$ Source: Strategas 25.2.27

US #stocks outperformed global stocks since 2009, driven by big concentration in #tech. But tech firms now invest heavily in capex,. Historically, big capex spenders underperform. [Source: Strategas 25.03.05] This shift may affect tech stock & global market relative performance.

Spreads b/w hi yield d & US Tsy debt have widened to ~3.0%. These levels have not caused credit contractions in the past, but the tariffs caused a fast expansion in the past weeks. 0.4% is a lot in 2 weeks. We will watch this closely as economic activity will track with this data

Yields on sovereign #debt have risen in the past few days as allies commit to #fiscalspending encouraged by the U.S. Higher sovereign #yields make U.S. bonds less attractive. Once the debt ceiling lifts, this will pressure yields in the US even more as the TGA liquidity ends.

The top of the #stockmarket, the largest capitalization stocks, may be changing trend. In the past few days, the Bloomberg #Magnificent7 Index has reached a 63-Day relative low versus the S&P 500 Index. Stay tuned. Past performance is not indicative of future results. #stocks

Odds do not favor a U.S. Government #shutdown on March 14th. Time and negotiations will tell [Source: Polymarket (2025.03.12] #lrgwealthadvisors #investmentadvice #financialadvisor

urges in the Policy Uncertainty Index levels have been followed by avg S&P 500 returns of 5.7% after 3 months, 10.9% after 6 months, & 21.5% 1 year later [Source: PolicyUncertainty.com & Strategas 25.03.03] Past performance does not guarantee future results. We urge calm

Copper seems to be arguing for more nominal growth (#inflation + real growth) rather than agreeing with the building #recession consensus.

The #stockmarket fears are palpable. Hopefully, data will trigger a reasoned response Market corrections during the 1st year of a new President's term average 12.3%. We sit just shy of 10%. [Source: Strategas 25.03.12] Pleasant? No. Expected? Yes. Panic-worthy? Not yet

Copper heading for an all-time high doesn’t rule out #recession, but does seem to suggest strength somewhere in the global #economy if not in the US.

Risk management is the skill that will allow you to 'play the market' for decades and benefit from countless market cycles. - Stan Weinstein

Because of the US’s massive #trade deficit Core Import Prices often lead Core #CPI. Core Import Prices might be starting to reaccelerate. The #inflation story isn’t quite over yet.

Two days of strong Advance/Decline readings help, but we’d prefer to see the S&P 500 Index retake the 200-Day Moving Average as well. Stay tuned. [Source: Strategas Securities LLC and LRG Wealth Advisors 2025.03.18] #LRGWealthAdvisors #investmentadvice #stockmarket #LaRueGibson

These readings of #policyuncertainty seem extreme to us The forward S&P 500 returns from extreme periods of “uncertainty” are generally quite strong Sources: Strategas [25.03.17] & Policy Uncertainty.com [25.03.03] Past performance does not guarantee future results

The Trump #tariff regime creates risk to the Next 12 Mo earnings estimates of 10%; however, the #tariffs remain a moving target. Below we have provided the effect given a full regime vs. simple reciprocity. A full regime may mean recession. Stay tuned. Source: Strategas 25.03.18

Are you buying this headline? [Source: Barron's 2025.03.17] #LRGWealthAdvisors #investmentadvice #techstocks #LaRueGibson

Core PCE Prices comes in a touch hotter than expected. Deglobalization continues to suggest baseline #inflation is more like 3% than the Fed’s increasingly antiquated 2% target.

📊 Market breadth reveals more than headlines. When trend & momentum align, history shows persistence. Our latest Occasional Daily Thoughts breaks it down. Read: …gwealthadvisors.hightoweradvisors.com/blogs/insights… #LaRueGibson #LRGWealthAdvisors #StockMarket #InvestmentAdvice #LiveTheLifeYouImagine