Here’s a paper that quantifies how much existing homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages have been disincentivized to move to avoid paying today’s higher rates. This has shrunk supply and caused home prices to rise more than high rates have dented them. fhfa.gov/PolicyPrograms…

Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst still thinks the Fed will cut 100bp this year in the face of a hard landing: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

The S&P just had its biggest monthly selloff since September, falling 4.16% in April. US Treasuries had their biggest one-month loss in more than a year. Traders are now pricing in barely one rate cut by December.

Citi's Rob Sockin says a hotter-than-expected employment cost index, which rose at the fastest pace in a year, is like 'a bad dream' for the Fed. Yields on 2-year Treasuries jumped back through 5%.

Evercore's Emanuel: A big risk this week is when someone asks Powell: 'Could you see the Fed’s next move as being a rate hike under any circumstances?” How he answers 'goes a very long way toward determining whether the correction continues sideways or retests the lows.'

“The sound that you hear is a narrative cracking.” Economists are rejecting the “immaculate disinflation” idea since the disinflation piece isn’t really happening right now. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Almost any way you slice it, inflation has been re-accelerating over the past three months.

Copper prices are the highest since 2022.

Traders are now only pricing in one rate cut this year, and not until the end of it. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

'The pivot party is over:' Pimco's Tiffany Wilding. But as eToro's Ben Laidler said, there are other places to make money - like earnings. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Yields on 10-year Treasuries have been above the S&P 500 earnings yield for three straight weeks. This is the first time we're seeing this since 2002: Jonestrading's Michael O'Rourke

BofA credit investor April survey: 'Investor camps are now: 45% soft landing, 40% no landing and 7% hard landing (7% unsure)...Inflation remains the #1 investor worry, and rising....Central bank policy error is the #2 concern.'

Average US gasoline prices have reached $3.68, the highest since October and up from a December low of $3.07.

P&G is on track to boost its prices for a sixth consecutive year, and in the latest quarter they came in 3% higher than a year earlier. Netflix is going to rely on price increases to juice profits. Inflation is not dying yet.