Our new preprint shows how a small model, trained with online RL, can outperform frontier LLMs on real-world forecasting tasks. Big implications for intelligence and high-stakes decision-making. Full paper 👇

⚡️➕♾ = 🔮

Apple is catching a lot of flak for its AI efforts. But the fixation on Apple's seeming inability to innovate in AI misses the bigger picture. Apple is likely to be the ultimate beneficiary of AI–and they can afford to take their time.

Unlikely Trump removes Powell in 2025

Very likely GPT-5 launches by the end of August

10% chance of a nuclear weapon detonating in 2025 😬

Fed likely to cut rates ✂️

Russia highly unlikely to agree to a cease-fire by Trump's deadline

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announce their engagement in August?

YoY change in CPI forecast at 2.7%

One of SN6 models (Lightning Rod Labs) just stepped beyond binary forecasting 👀 This hints at a shift toward continuous markets: from simple yes/no bets ➡️ to trading precision in numbers. If this sticks, prediction markets could price ANY (!) measurable reality, from inflation

Ben Turtel Lightning Rod Labs This is pretty cool 🔥

Mode 🟡 Lightning Rod Labs model says the median will be at 4.5k

Perplexity's offer to acquire Google Chrome is bold though unlikely to come to fruition. Latest prediction from Lightning Rod Labs

Polymarket 2.5-3.5 sec Credit Lightning Rod Labs

Major updates to Lightning Rod Labs now live 🚀🚀 ⚡ Faster Forecasts: Cerebras for context gathering 📊 Question Types: Continuous variables (prices, quantities, numeric values) & multiple choice 🚀 Enhanced API: New endpoints for general & custom models; HeadlineForecast