This might have helped with yesterday’s expedition jonn elledge

YouGov had Khan 47 Hall 25 yesterday. London polling is difficult but that’s a big gap between pollsters. Savanta’s numbers are closer to what I’d expect but we’ll see soon.

SLOVAK STATE DIRECTLY ASSISTS RUSSIAN ESPIONAGE

- Czech counter-intelligence exposed a Russian espionage scheme for bribing politicians of at least six European nations in order to influence European Parliament elections

- Czech government sanctions the lead handler who managed

This is accurate analysis.

Scene-setting for the London Mayor and Assembly contests - the guide Dave Hill and I wrote for OnLondon available here onlondon.co.uk/wp-content/upl…

1. Patrick Wintour for today's The Guardian on #Armenia 's western tilt. See my numbered thread below.
theguardian.com/world/2024/apr…

Walsall as Too Close To Call would be a bad result for the Conservatives - their support held up reasonably well in the borough in 2022 and 2023.

New: 5% of registered voters in London lack a valid form of photo ID

Ward level estimates show that this the highest in Becontree - 11% (Barking and Dagenham) and lowest in Bloomsbury - 0.5% (Camden).

Confirms the trend several other polls have found of a slight increase in Lab lead this week.

“This is a country that is desperately looking for friends and allies.”

Patrick Wintour in Yerevan:
theguardian.com/world/2024/apr…

Put this through a D’Hondt seat calculator and it gives Lab 12, Con 5, LD 3, Green 3, Reform 2. The last seat is fairly close between Con, Lab and LD (I’ve allocated it to LD). It’s incredibly difficult to win an overall majority in the London Assembly.

I’m looking forward to getting into the details of the results and doing what I can to elevate the discussion. But yes, most of the media-political nexus was embarrassingly bad last year.

V.interesting numbers from YouGov. Implying that Andy Street's personal premium above the party has balloned from 6% in 2021 to 18% today. Houchen's polling 51% in Teeside implies a similar personal vote vs 2021 of around c.30% above the party nationally

Valuable reading about mental health, the benefits system and work. I relate to a lot of what Isabel says here; I've cudgelled myself into working when really I should be signed off, but if you're self-employed you work for a hard taskmaster.

🧵I think the shift in messaging from being seen to help/encourage people with depression off benefits and into work (popular) to been seen actively punishing people with depression risks backlash - and in particular from swing voters. Some work we did with Rethink Mental Illness suggests why

Wow.