*CAT CFO: FALLING MATERIAL COSTS COULD CHALLENGE PRICE HIKES

reuters.com/markets/asia/j…

Jobless and continuing claims back to Dec levels - seasonality adj probably starting to peter out

Switzerland Holds Talks On Options To Stabilize Credit Suisse - FINMA Could Make Statement Supporting Credit Suisse ‘Today Or Tomorrow’

CANADIAN RMPI MOM ACTUAL -0.4% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS -0.1%) $MACRO start worrying about deflation

Kashkari - one of the the most outspoken hawks and veteran of financial crises - shifting down a few gears.

*FED'S KASHKARI: BANK TURMOIL DOES INCREASE RISK OF US RECESSION. Kashkari noted that a pullback in bank lending [...]may help provide some of the tightening that policymakers hope will bring down inflation, potentially leading to fewer interest-rate increases being required.

🇪🇺 Euro area money supply growth is declining faster than expected (*before* the recent events). M1 growth, including currency and overnight deposits, contracted by a record 2.7% in February. Credit growth remained weak overall. 🧵

US JOB OPENINGS BELOW 10 MLN IN FEBRUARY FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2021

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index keeps trending lower - from 3.5% to 1.47%. Sharp drop

dallasfed.org/research/surve…

6 months ago - and UST yields are now printing new cycle highs … ft.com/content/47e3d4… The steep losses on the sale of the SVB securities shifted investor attention to the risks that might be lurking in the huge bond portfolios held by other US banks, many of which invested

🔴 US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: HIGHER FOR LONGER RATES IS BY NO MEANS A GIVEN.

This is truly incredible. Billionaire property developer Tim Gurner said in September that "We need to see unemployment rise. We need it to rise 40-50%. We need to see pain in the economy. We need to remind people that they work for the employer, not the other way around."

Watch this space - in China, the Government is supporting growth. Good for European equities and EM assets, probably -ve core rates. FX crosses such as AUDCAD also worth a look

AKA pre-electoral orthodox supply schedule

SNB stopping buying FX and maybe actually selling it. AUD still cheap and a likely beneficiary of the China volume pumping exercise …and a nice triple bottom that makes long AUDCHF appealing

Stubborn US inflation puts BOJ under pressure, as a) USDJPY is back above 150 and b) the case for a global immaculate disinflation loses traction. With ECB looking closer to throw than towel than the FED and sticky inflation likely to have adverse ramifications on broader "risk"

EURJPY lower looks worth a try, at the current lvls 2\

EURCHF lower worth a try here - Jordan's comments make a Jun cut unlikely, while the mkt is still pricing a 40pc chance of a 25 bp cut - Leveraged accounts are still short CHF -> room for position wash out - The rate differential b/w EUR and CHF is already close to the highs at