There are cigarette excise tax increases in the offing in several states in 2025. It is my hope that lawmakers have the best information they can to make decisions about them. This page shows smuggling rates for states through 2022, and has other data. mackinac.org/smokes

Hi, Governor Gretchen Whitmer. I couldn't help but notice your plan to tax vape and related products. Please be aware of the illegal market surrounding these items. Also consider that some view the use of vapes as a harm reduction strategy for folks who wish to quit combustible cigarettes.

(1/2) Mackinac Center scholars in 2008 created a statistical model to measure degree to which cigarettes are smuggled state to state. In 2022 the model reported North Dakota was a net exporter of cigarettes equal to 13.8% of total cigarette consumption in the state.

(2/2) Mackinac Center scholars estimate that a proposed cigarette tax hike in North Dakota of $1.09 per pack, if adopted, would flip the state's status as a net exporter of cigarettes to a net importer. Nearly 3% of total consumption would be smuggled in.

(1/x) Hi, Indiana Government . A proposal being discussed in Indiana would hike cigarette taxes by $2 per pack, a 200+% increase. The Mackinac Center estimates that, if adopted, Indiana would go from being a net seller of cigarettes smuggled elsewhere to a net importer.

(1/2) Hi, Indiana Government At current cigarette tax rates in IN (99.5 cents) 24 cigarette packs are smuggled out to other states for every 100 consumed in the Hoosier state. If the $2 per pack tax increase proposal is adopted nearly 18% of total consumption will be smuggled into IN.

Another company picked by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation as a winner turns out to be a loser in the Michigan marketplace: michigancapitolconfidential.com/news/michigan-…

(1/x) Hi Governor Janet Mills. I just submitted testimony yesterday predicting that if the cigarette excise tax goes up by $1, Mainers will smuggle nearly 1.5 million more packs in from New Hampshire.

(2/x) Hi Governor Janet Mills. I also noted in my testimony that the $1 additional tax being proposed on cigarettes per pack (if adopted) would result in another 2.6 million packs being brought in from low-tax states like North Carolina. See my full testimony in my next post.

(3/3) Hi, Governor Janet Mills. Testimony I submitted Mar 3. regarding the proposed cig tax increase of $1 in Maine. It would double smuggling. An Act to Establish a University of Maine Medical School and to Dedicate Funds from Raising the Cigarette Tax to the School – Mackinac Center

"Corporate Welfare in the Federal Budget" | New study by the Cato Institute. This is a valuable new study to give you an idea of just how much in the way of federal dollars are wasted underwriting corporations and industry. Thanks Chris Edwards.

States continue to recommend cigarette tax increases. Nebraska is latest. We Mackinac Center estimate 72-cent cig tax hike this will turn the state from net exporter to net importer, with a tax evasion and avoidance (smuggling rate) of 10.4% of consumption.

Hi Greg Gianforte. I am a cigarette tax avoidance and evasion (smuggling) expert. My estimation is a $1 hike in HB 826 will raise Montana's cig smuggling rate to 33% of MT consumption, up from 21%. Your neighboring states will supply the bulk of the illicit traffic.

The Overton Window explains everything from taxes to drunk driving laws to hardcore music. Detroit News Opinion detroitnews.com/story/opinion/…

My economist colleague, Todd Nesbit, and I estimate each year the degree to which cigarettes are smuggled among states. In 2022 WA's cigarette smuggling rate was 36.8%, ranking the state 5th highest for inbound cigarette smuggling.

If the $2 cig tax increase proposed in HB 5803 we anticipate the Washington state smuggling rate will jump to 58.8% of total state consumption and displace New York as the state with the highest inbound cigarette smuggling rate in the nation.

If the ban on flavored smoke in Washington state is adopted too smuggling will be worse. Legal sales will fall precipitously and lead to a net decline in cigarette excise tax revenue of $98 million (on the low end), according to our statistical model.

For more on our state smuggling estimates, see: mackinac.org/smokes

Michigan handed out more corporate subsidies than virtually any other state in recent years while its population stagnated and it lost more manufacturing jobs than anywhere but New York or California. If that's "effectiveness" then I'd hate to see what "ineffective" looks like.

mackinac.org/blog/2025/will…