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Spy is basically flat for six months! But the fact we survived is the real story!

Muddle thru has been the entire history of Macro investing..... What is the upside to making a tail scenario investing as a macro investor...other than buying lottery tickets...which is always worthwhile! Ask Rokos!

So someone asked me where 10 year rates are going to be 5 years out....my answer was 3.5%....I stand by that assertion!

Brilliant!

I threw everything in here—the $, bonds, future of the defense umbrella, the insistence on centrality, stablecoin, why centrality is not always strength, the evolution of US & global (r,g ) dynamics, and a shoutout to Steven Solomon. But no dad jokes. phenomenalworld.org/analysis/monet…

Insurance is amazing. By protecting against the most paralyzing outcomes, people are able to take more risk, produce more output, and enjoy a higher standard of living. Undermining insurance for the moments when people fall into unemployment does not promote civic duty.

That people are responding to Fishback....is an abomination in itself...

Beating up on Laos and Myanmar, the two biggest sources of our trade imbalance....I get it! Its high school. We beat up who we can. And they really aren't big transhipment hubs, in case you were curious! That would be the Dong...and the Malays and the Singaporeans...

So, if you think about it.....from a practical standpoint, the biggest use case so far for AI that I have seen....is coding. That is equivalent to discovering CDO cubed as the ultimate financial technology.....Its creating slop on top of SLOP. So now everyone will be able to

Man...the lover affair of twitter with anything related to Jobs and Munger.....is at an illicit level, I tell you.... I have muted the words....but some still get through.... That's like being infatuated with Gandhi and the Founding Fathers....

I have to say, Twitter is the biggest resilience building platform in the history of humanity.... If it stops bothering you....after a while I most certainly will....you can deal with any unpleasant personal interaction quite nicely... One reason I have stayed around.

This is true of bond ETFs...when the ability to price the underlying is basically zero.... ETFs drive the pricing of the underlying.....

So there is class of NYC billionaires who have an acute Bloomberg envy.... he was like us....but somehow he is three time mayor...and I am smarter than him....but I don't count.... Ackman and Loeb, the worst hedge fund manager in the history of humanity, reside there... The

I am disappointed in the uptake for this tweet.... You folks know that the price discovery issue between the underlying and the aggregate risk is more highlighted in fixed income than anywhere else... In Equities, they call it arbitrage...In FI especially credit we call it

The TACO market level circularity is bigger than ever.... Just remember that...when making a trading decision... Brilliant now...stupid a minute Iater... Guess how corporate America feels about all of this... Exactly