For anyone using a momentum indicator, such as a stochastic or RSI, I suggest you look at John Ehler's roofing filter. I smooths out the erratic moves without adding a lag. I've used it for years.

If you're a moving average trader, I've tested whether to enter a trade when the price crosses the MA or when the trendline (MA) changes direction. The trendline change is consistently better except for mutual funds with dividends included. It is incredibly smooth.

Our December Performance Report has been posted. We look back at 2021 and give our take on 2022. Go to our website kaufmansignals.com and click on Performance for the details. Stay safe! Control your risk.

I was just reprimanded for not announcing my new book, "Learn To Trade" on Twitter. It's for more than beginners, and a good review for all traders. You can find it on Amazon, as usual. 425 pages, in color, ebook and print. Hope it's a good read.

We've just sent out our January report, "The Fed and the Stock Market." We believe the Fed can correct for any stock market interpretation by action, inaction, or inuendo. Go to kaufmansignals.com and click on the performance report.

I like high-volatility exits because the risk becomes greater than the reward . But it doesn't work using VIX because it's an opionion can disappear the next day. Use historic volatility when it rises to a high level. The threshold will be different for single stocks vs indexes.

How do you really know how much return and risk you will get from your trading system? Simply test a reasonable range of parameters over a decent time span and average all the results. We don't know what will happen in the future, so the average is your best guide.

For those of you trading crude and doing great, a dose of reality. Cash volatility is 48%, up from the normal 30%. In 2008 when crude peaked at 145, volatility was 35%. It was on the way down that volatility went to 102%. Be careful. Reduce your position size to control risk.

Just posted an article on Seeking Alpha, "Crisis Alpha: A Good Idea or a Flash in the Pan?" It shows what has happened since the publication of the book in 2014. The results even surprised me.

This past week I posted an article on Seeking Alpha about "Crisis Alpha." It was a term coined after the 2008 financial crisis to show that a long-only stock portfolio could offset it's extreme risk with short futures. Does it really work? Would it work now? Take a look.

I posted "The Best Balance of Stocks and Bonds is Not What You Think" on Seeking Alpha yesterday, 3/18. It turns out the the basic 60%-40% allocation is far from the best. The sell-offs due to the financial crisis, trade wars, Covid, and now Ukraine have changed things.

Just published another article on Seeking Alpha, "How To Find Low-Volatility Stocks That Beat the Market." It's not easy because the low-volatility ETFs have surprisingly high volatility. But it's your money and you need to know how to reduce risk in this market.

Today's Bloomberg headline "Hedge-Fund Giant Man Group Questions Whether 60/40 Ever Worked." Duh. 40/60 was always better, but brokers earned more with 60/40. With no commissions, their dialog is changing. In difficult times, like now, 70% bonds and 30% stocks is even better.

As a follow-up on the percentage of stocks and bonds that really work, read my recent article on Seeking Alpha, seekingalpha.com/article/449656…

Don't look to buy dips in a bear market. The odds are against you. Use any trend and buy a dip while the trend is up. Then, if the trend turns down you have a reason to exit and try again. Buying dips is always risky, but in a bear market it could be disastrous.

Over the years I have observed that promotional firms tout the worst features of products as the best. When you see "most reliable," it usually means that it has been ranked "least reliable." Is it then ironic that stablecoin TerraUSD has collapsed? Don't be fooled by names.

Before deciding that you want to be long Nasdaq because it's off the lows of 2 weeks ago, look at the bigger picture. Wait until interest rates turn down, the S&P, Utilities, and Transports turn up. You may miss the bottom, but you'll also miss the risk.

I've just posted a new article on Seeking Alpha. It's "How To Tell When The Bear Market Has Ended." For all you trading at this time, it should be a useful guide.

A reminder to crypto traders: you wanted a game with no rules, now you have lost money and can't withdraw you funds from some "exchanges." You have no recourse. Next time use the CME or, better, don't trade a market that has no basis in value.