Nate Silver Does he realize he's measuring the state of polling, rather than the state of reality? Who will tell him?

Tony Christini Nate Silver It’s not just that polling & “polling reality” are different. Answering a poll before the election & voting on Election Day are different, for a lot of reasons unrelated to statistics, like the political process of #bandwagoning in a 2-party system with divided government…

Tony Christini Nate Silver As Clausewitz explained, equally capable states that aren’t willing to yield often fight to determine who’s stronger. Once the balance of power starts to be clear, the weaker side or its partisans begin to yield so they can survive…

Tony Christini Nate Silver Clausewitz wrote in the prenuke era, when states had to take territory before they could impose their will on the other side. That’s still the case in domestic politics. You can poll & model all you want. But the ground game & all of the fog and friction around it exist & matter

Tony Christini Nate Silver Politics isn’t physics. People can & do change their minds, both on their own & in response to what others are doing. Strategic interaction: hard to model & make point predictions. Best option: do your part as capably & honorably as possible. Vote & encourage others to do so.

Heading into Election night, Trump: - is not leading in the battleground early vote - is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters - did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris There is no data right now suggesting he's winning

Just-released NBC News exit poll says top concern of American voters (35%) is "Democracy."

On the one hand, this is pretty horrifying election interference (and we should treat it as such). On the other hand, it says something about the weakness of Russian covert ops that they’re basically reduced to the same tactic as high school kids who don’t want to take a test.

We will fight on. There are proven strategies to fight autocrats, which I wrote about in the resistance chapter of #Strongmen, and a world of talent and knowledge and experience in America to draw on.

AP lede for the history books:

Post-mortem time for all who were on the maybe line—or slightly on wrong side of maybe Top forecasters knew about the polls’ biases (below) but had an existential choice: stick with their models/analytic process or be creative (which carries risk of wish-fulfillment thinking).

What now? More here: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

“The greatest imminent threat to democracy isn’t civil war or mass detentions but age-old human weaknesses: lack of courage & imagination; difficulty overcoming collective-action problems; our desire to hope for the best instead of planning for the worst.” Rosa Brooks

Wonderful to hear from so many Montana Model UN alumni! Please remember to contribute to our crowdfunding campaign by 11/15. Even small amounts make a big difference. And be sure to share our link with your network. Thank you! crowdfund.supportum.org/project/43746