Chart of the week: UK per capita GDP is stagnating, but work still pays In an earlier post (see below) I showed a chart highlighting that annualised UK real GDP growth has averaged 1.8% since November 2023. I used the chart to illustrate that, contrary to the prevailing

Great to join Bloomberg UK Guy Johnson Anna Edwards yesterday for a lively debate on the UK economy and policy challenges for the upcoming budget Here's a link to the show - my bit starts at around 28 minutes youtube.com/watch?v=yI1Pf8… #ukeconomy #ukmacro #ukbudget

A well argued piece by Chris Giles Well worth a read. . . The UK is a fiscal saint, not a sinner ft.com/content/bd3d51… via @ft

NEW: Rachel Reeves has pencilled in November 26 as the date of her eagerly-awaited Budget, HuffPost UK has learned. huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/exclusiv…

Great to join Caroline Hepker on Bloomberg Radio a few days ago to discuss the global economic outlook, the impact of tariffs, challenge facing the Fed and global bond markets #useconomy #ukmacro #economy #trump #bondmarkets youtu.be/Z2GLjJUQ7N0?si… via YouTube

My thoughts on the bond market rout in today's The Telegraph Bond markets show the world is flirting with disaster telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/… #ukeconomy #ukmacro #economy #bondmarkets #budget

26 November budget? If confirmed, markets will be worried about a long three months of growth-sapping speculation over which anti-growth measures the government may enact. Risk of a repeat of last year? #starmer #reeeves #budget #ukeconomy #ukmacro

Why are current gilt wobbles not a repeat of the Truss budget? £ gives a clue. When interest rates rise and currencies slump (i.e. 2022), that's a sign of panic & capital flight. Not now. Today, bond yields are up and that's a problem (see below), but £ remains firm. #ukeconomy

Great to join CNBC today to discuss why fiscal discipline could be a recipe for faster economic growth #economy #ukeconomy #budget #reeves #bondmarkets cnbc.com/video/2025/09/…

The historical necessity of Starmer’s failure via Financial Times on.ft.com/4g7mWJs

UK retail sales ahead of expectations in July. Follows the upward revision to services PMI for August (54.2 vs 53.6) & the 2Q GDP beat (0.3% QoQ ahead of 0.1% by BoE and consensus). Two points worth noting: 1) underlying economy is not booming, but also much stronger than the

Would not be surprised if markets try to push the Fed towards a 50bp cut after this. . . . #fed #useconomy #nfpday

✍️ 'The risks to the PM of tying his fate to the economy can pay off if he takes bold steps' | Writes Kallum Pickering Read the full comment article at the link below ⬇️ telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/…

See my thoughts in The Sunday The Telegraph #starmer #budget #reeves #ukeconomy #ukmacro #economy #macro telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/…

'No One Has A Serious Plan To Cut Debt' Great to join Caroline Hepker today on Bloomberg Radio #trump #fed #economy #starmer #reeves youtu.be/cokoCn4N2Rg?si…

British economic sentiment is following the US in becoming a partisan signal. This has been true for decades, but the red-blue gap is widening (data: Ipsos in the UK / Keiran Pedley).

Intelligent analysis by the FT here and well worth a read – it shows that the sentiment in its own articles collapsed during the GFC and never quite recovered. Note: the FT is not an outlier. However, the article never mentions the advent of social media in the late 2000s,