He said the focus on regulation “is driving Europe to last place [and] is driving Europe to irrelevance” which was why he believed it was “on the way to becoming a museum — great food, great architecture, great scenery [and] great wine but no industry left”.

The increase in Yields ytd is coming mainly from the risk premium (real yields + 45bp), not the inflation component (break evens + 20bp).

Quite a move in GS's Twitter Consumer Sentiment Proxy.

Define socialism for the upper 10%:
-cutting jobs
-announcing share buybacks

Welcome to Super Tuesday in the Eurozone with back-to-back GDP and inflation data, and sundries, from 6:30 to 11:00 UK time. It could be a roller coaster. Please keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times. French Q1 GDP in a tick. Good luck.

Financial markets will find a workaround…

At the point where you’re considering 50% (!) tariffs maybe you’d be better off considering if you’re just doing something wrong. 🇪🇺🇨🇳

Anmaßung von Kompetenz, die

US Corporations and households managed to increase their duration so no problem yet for budget constraint sector.
The government has no hard budget constraint, because the coupons are just dollars printed by its own central bank.
The FED can lower rates or start buying treasuries…

Weighted GDP (2005 = 100) with pre GFC trends. What killed the Periphery was the Euro-Crisis, not the GFC, which hit the Eurozone in a similar way 🫡

I am currently embarking on the meticulous preparation of my dataset for a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) analysis, aimed at quantifying the impact of a sustained higher interest rate policy in Europe (not exceeding two rate cuts).
It is essential to segment the Eurozone…

'However strong our alliance with America is [ie, even if #Biden stays in power], we are not a priority for them' says #Macron . 'They have 2 priorities: themselves - fair enough - and China.'

'We used to buy from 🇷🇺🇨🇳 and delegate our security to 🇺🇸. Well this is over.'

1/2
Good Guardian editorial: 'John Maynard Keynes foresaw the current predicament. In July 1944, with war raging, he proposed at the Bretton Woods conference...

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Europe is less hard-working, less ambitious, more regulated and more risk-averse than the US, according to the boss of Norway’s giant oil fund, with the gap between the two continents only getting wider.

Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of the $1.6tn fund, told the Financial…

ECB saying hello to rates markets that only price 60% prob of a June rate cut I

FX: (oops!) following the military exchange of blows in the #MiddleEast , #euro has come under pressure, both against US #Dollar and #Swiss franc -- safe havens were in demand: #euro is not one of them, chart SGKB News

Fascinating paper by Joachim Voth & Sascha O. Becker, presented today at Stanford University, which finds that areas with less Christianity (“shallow Christianity”) in early 20th century Germany were more likely to support and vote for the Nazi Party cepr.org/publications/d…

Euro zone inflation is clearly decoupling from the US. Start-of-year price resets are muddying things, but - even with those - the weight of items with > 2% inflation is down in the Euro zone. There never was a strong case for demand-led inflation in Europe. We see that now...