Thread of threads This is a brief guide for selected threads. It will include materials on the current war and briefs useful for prognosing the future of the region once the war is over 🧵

Our new report - Stable Seas: Western Indian Ocean provides a holistic overview of maritime security covering nine issue areas. Authors @MaisiePigeon Kelly Moss Jay Benson Laura Burroughs Colleen Devlin Lydelle Joubert Tyler Lycan Raj Mohabeer stableseas.org/post/stable-se…

Late at night on March 3, the voices of two Russian artillery officers stationed outside Mariupol crackled over the airwaves. This is their story: actualcontrol.substack.com/p/for-all-targ…

Excellent thread on the Russian BTG concept and why it isn't working in Ukraine

Delighted to release the interactive map of the Indian Ocean Region- a key initiative of Carnegie Endowment #IndianOceanInitiative to help better visualize & understand the region, its players, dynamics and key facts. bit.ly/39l6TJw

This, BTW, is why technical intelligence units collect all the manufacturing information on captured equipment to build files on where/by whom/when enemy kit is made. It gives you trends on the enemy economy you can find nowhere else. Like Russia is short of truck tires. 9/End

Interesting. The Russian Navy is keeping its landing ships away from Crimea👇 There are implications in this. A NATO naval policy thread🧵

This is the exact definition of “sons of the soil” that I talk about in How Civil Wars Start. And what we know about them is that they are the ones who tend to start civil wars when the system no longer serves them.

Don't miss this excellent commentary on #CAR's armed forces. Enrica Picco crisisgroup.org/africa/central… A very detailed analysis, available in English and French, on why key reforms are essential to avoid fragmentation, yet again, of the national army. #EarlyWarning Crisis Group

1/ Lets talk about the Buffalo Terrorist's manifesto and digital diary. Here are some key points based on my initial readings and annotations of his writings. 🧵

Special issue on climate change and terrorism with Editors is hitting the online shelves very soon. As a little taster, here's the lineup. Some great stuff in here

A military unit where priority 1 is getting everyone home is a unit that’s lost its way. I think a subset of veterans who grew embittered with the risks inherent in soldiering during murky post-9/11 wars have a lot to do with spreading a perception that this is a military mindset

Here's a media literacy rule of thumb: any time you hear about how the courts have done something outrageous and absurd to some poor, long-suffering, gigantic, wildly profitable corporation...*dig deeper*. 1/

The Marine Corps should create a maritime cavalry to find and destroy targets around the world's littorals  warontherocks.com/2022/09/call-t…

Today I asked ChatGPT about the topic I wrote my PhD about. It produced reasonably sounding explanations and reasonably looking citations. So far so good – until I fact-checked the citations. And things got spooky when I asked about a physical phenomenon that doesn’t exist.

Subsequent reports from US & European news sites have pointed to Wagner as the attackers, but that counter-claim comes FROM the CPC rebel group itself. More evidence is needed before we jump to conclusions about this incident.

Coups tend to be bloodless, in part because the possibility of a slide into a fratricidal civil war scares the military deeply, and coup dynamics are driven by a desire to avoid civil war. Let me explain more concretely.

Since it's Sunday and I'm bored, I figured I would finally, definitively answer the question of "why do people think the economic is bad (and is that the case?)". This is because it is easy to answer, and the answer is funny and will make many people mad. x.com/whstancil/stat…

Thread about working with arms traffickers and manufacturers in our favorite narco state, the Netherlands 🇳🇱 I guess. I haven’t been posting updates for years but maybe someone might learn something neat so here we are (1/idk man just scroll)

With the Houthis continued attacks on maritime targets, re-upping a project I produced with Stable Seas along with Meghan Curran Curtis Bell Jay Benson Tyler Lycan Michael van Ginkel