Part 1. Auto loan debt has officially reached $1.52 trillion Part 2. 16% of consumers who financed a new car pay at least $1,000/month Part 3. Rate of severely delinquent loans has hit 2009 levels Part 4. _____

Backside Hitting

Staying Square Staying Closed Staying in the Door Jamb🚪 #Yeli

Decent liquidity is helping stocks, despite the Fed’s efforts to take the liquidity tide back out to sea. The orange line below explains the market’s zigs and zags almost perfectly. QT is being offset by market liquidity and bank reserves, which is keeping stocks afloat.

Bull Trap: I think we might be in the biggest since 2000. The underlying factors: -TGA refill -SPR drain -Student loans -jobless ramp -interest rate/deposit drain -CRE crisis -Ongoing QT …are very very difficult to reverse without a crisis.

NASDAQ valuations have surged at the third fastest pace in the last two decades! Will tech stocks grow into these lofty multiples or will we see a re-rating of risk? Source: BofA

Long-term investors should not touch the market even with a ten-foot pole Earnings yield is only at 2.8% Current valuations have marked iconic tops, like 1929 and 1966

1/3

Rental affordability is superior to mortgage affordability at present, per Goldman Sachs, $GS:

Most straightforward way to approach simple setups: -follow trend (long when indexes > 8/20sma < other) -close to ITM position when looking for breakout -5-10% OTM when looking for reversal (me thing) -only take a position you can handle a total nuke of and more probably -30%

Housing Affordability Index from NAR fell in 2Q to its lowest/worst on record

Year/year decline in Leading Economic Index (LEI) from The Conference Board eased a touch in July to -7.5%, but still a sharp drop from peak and in territory consistent with prior recessions

*Between 1970-2023: The avg home price has risen 20x The avg cost for bachelor degree has risen 18x The avg new car price rose 16x The avg gasoline price rose 11x Yet nominal avg income has only risen ~6x This is why credit/debt has soared, incomes can’t justify costs

Student loan bills in the mail. Gasoline prices turning up. PPP money spent. Jobs starting to show cracks. And Consumer Discretionary looks like it’s already rolling over.

Credit card debt vs personal savings.

SL @PrydoBert Most think water bottles when they hear recycling. Bottles are mostly PP#1 (PET), and they are recycled in greater quantities. Bottle caps on the other hand are PP#5, so are car interior parts, baby seats, food container, straws, carpets, etc. PP5 are not reused and hence $PCT.

Prepping for 2024!!!

Let's remove 8 zeros and pretend the U.S. government is a single family household: Annual Family Income: $21,700 Annual Family Expenditures: $38,200 New Debt on Credit Card: $16,500 Outstanding Debt on Credit Card: $142,710 Total budget cuts so far: $38.50 I think we all know

Consumer credit card debt just plunged the most since covid; these prints are usually negative just ahead or inside of deep recessions.

$pct is dead money until they announce partnerships/future revenues. No one knows when that’s coming. It’s not a question of “if” but “when”.