Exactly. #Markets are correctly anticipating the #BoE to remain wary up until Q4, barring a marked deterioration on the labour market. $GBP

The final piece of imminent $AUD strength is in place: With #inflation remaining elevated, the #RBA promises to become a leading hawk. Finally breaking the long-term downward trend and if sailing past the 0.67 handle, we expect $AUDUSD to climb towards 0.70 towards year's end.

Aussie mthly CPI YoY has picked up, and has caused many to freak out. Rates off by ~20bp. They seem to miss that unless the next 3 prints are HUGE (>6% ann.) the YoY figure will fall quickly to 3.1%. The 9m avg MoM% is 3.1% ann. It's an old story. 1/ x.com/cjoye/status/1…

Smart analysis by Jim as to why the inversion of the yield curve has been failing as a traditional #recession indicator. Jim is right that the curve needs to uninvert via bull steepening first. BUT: As markets are all about timing, this indicator has been at least misleading.

Make no mistake: The #US labour market has started to deteriorate. For all the Fed's mixed (and at times outright confusing) signals, the #rates path from here is clearly downwards. BUT: A reelection of Donald Trump might push those cuts well into 2025. #higherforlonger

Good one by Anna here. Should really be common sense, yet merits a repeat: Labour markets are always and everywhere a lagging indicator, turning for the worse when the economy got sour already. #Fed #rates #unemployment

Good thread by Alf here. We're very bearish re $CAD, particularly in relation to $GBP, but also $USD and $EUR, if to a lesser degree. Technicals look bad for the #Loonie as well, with the $EURCAD 1.5 handle about to fall within a multi-week upward trend. #forex #Canada

Agreed. We've always maintained that the #Yen was a powderkeg of carry trades ready to blow up violently, rather than reversing past year's losses in a slow and orderly manner. #forex $JPY

Alot of people asking what caused the stock market selloff.. here's the answer. Its never just one reason with this type of move, more of a domino effect that has been brewing. But you can point to the Yen 'carry trade' as the culprit. Just look at the Aussie/Yen pair.. gave

Our managing partner sticks his oar into the debate about #sovereigndebt and #BTPs in particular. #debt #bonds #MonetarySovereignty

ING Economics Seems a bit jarring: How come you anticipate UST 10yr yields rising over the course of 2025 while simultaneously, you forecast growth to deteriorate and short-term rates thus to come down? Curve steepening alright, but from both ends when growth stalls and inflation is tame?

Wowsers! This goes a long way to demonstrate as to why financial conditions remain relatively loose or at least far less tight than anticipated by most when central banks started jacking up interest #rates.

Alf is bang on here. Don't mistake the relative calm emanating from China ever since the collapse of Evergrande and Country Garden for an all-clear signal: The malaise is wide-spread and deep-seated, and threatens to choke the world's former no. 1 economic growth engine.

Thought-provoking post by Anna re the state of the US economy here: Inventory build-ups into potentially weakening household spending are indeed an oftentimes harbinger of recessions. So do watch this metric as we draw towards year's end.

In advising against taking the #SahmRule too literally this time around, The Economist (and others) point to the fact that the rule hasn't worked as reliably in other countries as in the US. Claudia Sahm 1/ #economics economist.com/finance-and-ec…