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Wow

Looking better for Rosen

Hard to see how Brown wins.

I noted months ago that some Dems seemed to be overlooking the source of the difference here. Trump was just popular and that is what was bringing down the Dem Presidential nominee compared to the Senate races. 125k voted Trump in MI and left the Senate race blank.

Interesting look at independent voters in NV.

US House seats looks to be between 213 and 215 for Dems. Two seats in CA are razor thin. Reps would have between 220 and 222. A 220-215 House would put a strain on Reps, particularly with Trump depleting their numbers temporarily for cabinet appointments.

What happened was that Dems stopped accepting messages from within the party that were against certain races, immigrants, and other minorities (e.g. gay people). That alienated a lot of their former base whose economic viewpoints are based in part on those messages.

I think the idea that you can just do a good job and let the data speak for itself failed for Dems, at least for the swing voters that decided the Presidential election. A full court press on messaging from the first month on might be more effective. Reps did that and it worked.

We've gotten to a weird spot where you can buy record players in the store, but not CD players.

A bit surprised here. A lot of times the special election over-performances aren't big enough to actually flip a seat, but this time it was just enough.

Has there ever been a compatible same/next day drop in the stock market directly attributable to a unilateral executive action before? Sometimes it's hard to say a President is directly responsible for market fluctuations, but not here.

I have a thought that I keep wondering about. I wonder if we are transitioning away from politicians as Presidential candidates towards celebrities with a sponsoring party. Obama and Trump were basically celebrities, although Obama was also a politician. AOC might be both too.

I believe this is the first time Dems out-registered Reps in a very long time in NC. Dems really need this to be a pattern, pretty much nationwide. Could just be a blip.

The CBC has projected that the Liberals will win the most seats in Canada for a fourth straight election. A remarkable comeback for a party that was dead in the water just a few months ago.

Reps beat Dems in voter registration in NC this week, showing that last week's win for Dems was a blip related to curing ballots from the NC Supreme Court election.

Very little out there positive for Dems, so it's a bit surprising to see this from AtlasIntel, one of most accurate pollsters in the last two elections. Given everything going on, it would be hard to pinpoint the reasoning for the shift if it is real.