If the slope of this remains the same in this election, then Erdogan will get 48.5% of the vote, which could mean a second round, as the votes of the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, are likely to be greater than 1.5%. Hopefully the slope is steeper and KK wins in first round...

Oxford Middle East Review will be covering the second round of the #TurkishPresidentialElection LIVE 🇹🇷 🔗 Follow along with us on our live blog at: 24liveblog.com/live/U0gG6 #Seçim2023

Based

If Trump’s campaign successfully demoralizes Muslim voters in Michigan using Biden’s stance on Israel, it will go a long way in terms of winning him the election. Similar to voter discouragement efforts among African American voters in Philadelphia in 2016. Which paid off.

Fascinating article from The Drum on political ads during the 2024 U.S. election, here are the highlights: - Spending could be as high as $12 billion by Nov 5, up 30% from the previous election - Digital spending is expected to reach $3.5 billion, up 150% from 2020 - Harris is

Best Trump line so far: “I have been a leader in fertilization” 😂 #Debate2024 #Trump #Harris

🚨TRUMP: "IN SPRINGFIELD THEY'RE EATING THE DOGS. THE PEOPLE ARE EATING THE CATS. THEY'RE EATING THE PETS OF THE PEOPLE THAT LIVE THERE. THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING IN OUR COUNTRY." 😂😂😂

Last night, Trump tried to turn Arab voters away from Harris, accusing her of "hating the Arab population" - part of a wider strategy of suppressing Dem turnout in Michigan - check this ad ran in areas with high Arab-American populations. #TrumpHarrisDebate #Israel

Interesting suggestion, 2 points: 1. Florida isn't a swing state. 2. Even if it were, you'd need to assess if they're at risk of voting Trump/not voting. #Microtargeting & #politicaladvertising has to be based on research & resources spent v carefully. #2024Election #Haitians

In 2015, El Salvador had the highest homicide rate in the Western Hemisphere. Today, it has the 2nd lowest — only Canada is safer So how did this transformation happen? And — more importantly — why do so many politicians hate the man responsible for it?

Check out this #Trump ad running in #Pennsylvania. It's gotten up to 8 million views - but no use was made of the limited demographic targeting options made available to the campaign. #Immigration isn't the key issue for ALL voters. More precision needed. youtu.be/2XXQE-0xeMo

The OSINT implications of this are significant. Footage like this, coupled with other data, could allow #Israel to make an effective "heat map" of #Hezbollah targets across #Lebanon.

When #elections are tight, like it will likely be in #Pennsylvania - targeting uncommitted, previously unengaged persuadables like first-time voters and, in this case, the Amish, is a key strategy. I have doubts about how receptive they may be to #Trump, though.