The halving effects the market over time. Being a continuum, it is wrong to ask, if it is priced in or not.

The correct question is 'How much is priced in?'.

Certainly a few weeks. Likely a few months, unlikely many many months, certainly not years.

The halving reduces the daily inflation from 900 BTC to 450 BTC.

For comparison, at current prices this reduction equals a daily inflow of $30m. With around $2.7b per quarter it is nearly twice as much as Microstrategy invested in Q1 '24.

I have a positive cash flow, DCA into Bitcoin and never sell.

Fast forward a lot.

Eventually, I either hold all Bitcoin or Bitcoin price is infinity. I rule out the former as it requires everyone to sell all their Bitcoin.

At Grayscale, Bitcoins face each year a 1/66 chance of getting captured. I am happy for every coin escaping the GBTC confinement.

People do not care, if you are rich. They care, if you can make them rich.

How different things were just four years ago.

Huge margin longs on Bitfinex winding down. Nearly 1k BTC per day over the last month.

Price goes up and I profit. Price goes down and I can buy cheaper. Both is equally good and I thus feel indifferent.

Indifference marks the optimal position size.

Proof of work:
- education
- muscles
- wisdom
- energy
- sound money

It's not over, it's time.

Casual 1.5k BTC buy order on BFX.

FTX creditors will get paid back in cash instead of in kind.

Once they receive the ~$10B payback, they will (partly) buy back 'in kind'.

--> Liquidation of FTX' crypto assets was supressing prices, but will also cause demand down the road.

Very interesting and balanced results. Also some good responses to the poll.

In aggregate, increasing positions increases funding rates and profit taking reduces them.

Funding rates went up quite a lot last days. So I think even more than 54% increased their longs.

Assume you are long and price goes up, do you buy more and increase the position or sell to take profits?

Update: Funding rates went up over the last three days, but price did not move much.
--> less room for growth, except strong ETF inflow.

When you read the news: observe how your gut reacts to it. That is often more telling than the news themselves.

Funding rates are still modest --> Plenty of room left to the upside.

Blackrock and Fidelity both have strong incentives to have the leading Bitcoin ETF.

They will not only advertise their ETFs, they will also allocate from many of their existing funds to achieve that.

Fidelity just got a head start on that race.

Net flow of ETFs (GBTC vs rest) is an important metric.

But it is unknown how much of the inflow is new money vs. reshuffling by spot holders selling to buy the ETF.

--> It is possible that net flow of ETFs is not (so) positive, yet.