Lets play a game....

Excited to join Usman Naeem 🛡️, Nikita Fadeev, and Brevan Howard Digital for a markets panel next Tuesday in London. Open to all — RSVP & I’ll see you on the dance floor 🎤 🕺 …shopandnetworkingevent.splashthat.com

Historically, we've seen significantly more overwriting in #BTC vs #ETH -- which has pinned base vol c.9pts lower at the 30-day. ETH ATM IV: Average: 69.12 Median: 67.81 BTC ATM IV: Average: 60.72 Median: 57.67 This opens up some edge for vol selling within #ETH for those

Significant hedging has pushed #BTC skew to eye-watering levels. This continued overnight with traders grabbing put protection in the 13SEP24–27SEP24 contracts around the 55k-50k strikes. Ahead of NFP, it's hard to make the case that the left tail isn't already priced.

50bps on the table

WISDOMTREE ETHEREUM TRUST FILES TO WITHDRAW REGISTRATION STATEMENT

Sorry WHOOP…. Things to do 🌝🌝

Correlations likely to stay high whilst equities lead. Vol remains clustered around the QQQ’s with long duration assets the clear candidates for lead/lag.

As we approach year-end, those expecting cuts to be the sole driver for risk assets must consider the broader context. The current curve reflects expectations of 112bps of easing (4x25bps cuts+change) by December. To trigger a surprise liquidity influx, we would likely need

I wanted to add some thoughts to David Lawant's brilliant analysis, as there's plenty of debate around how strong the relationship is between US-Election odds, specifically the Republican's -- and Bitcoin's price action. If anyone's missed it, it's worth a read:

Objectively, markets have shifted following last night's debate, with PredictIT polls moving further in favour of the Democrats. Odds now stand at 56%-47%, while Polymarket shows even (after rounding). Risk off flow is flagged ahead of today's CPI -- Headline is expected at

With CPI behind us, the market's focus shifts to Wednesday's meeting as the next catalyst. Additionally, event risk is showing up in $SPY forward vol ahead of the: > 20th September -BOJ meeting > 27th September - Core PCE > 4th October - Non Farm Payrolls > 5th (15th

Absolutely brutal... eeek

Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, the market digested another WSJ article from Nick Timiraos -- indicating that Powell's Jackson Hole speech was aimed at maintaining flexibility on the potential size of the forthcoming rate cut, keeping the door open to a 50bp cut. In response,

From the Fed's perspective, Friday's fed fund futures close was about the worst possible: 49% probability of a 50 bps cut/51% probability of a 25 bps cut (chart). This is literally one tick from maximum uncertainty (50/50). About half of Wall Street will be

Yeah… the bear market was bad, but have you been caught by a CrossFit photographer?

Seeing interest in $SOL ahead of #Breakpoint2024 while the broader market lacks fresh narratives. Currently feels driven by stock replacement ahead the FOMC & likely needs to resolve before any sustained spot-led bid.

Fed funds are pricing 70% probability of a 50bp rate cut tomorrow, up from 20% last week. In response, the USD has weakened over the past four sessions, Gold has rallied higher and the $SPY trades towards to all-time highs. Liquidity conditions have loosened significantly, and