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这次紧缩步子太大，而且是在经济下滑的时候干的。依据亚特兰大的模型，q2gdp负值相当可能，如果侥幸搞了个0.x的正值，考虑到货币政策对实体经济的传导有12-18个月的滞后性，衰退几乎无法避免。

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CPI后美国总统暗示通胀见顶 美联储则持相反意见 形成博弈 — 2022.7.14

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