Dreams do come true

As this period draws closer, confidence continues to increase in an outbreak of arctic air and winter weather chances along the East Coast. Ensemble guidance continues to specifically focus on January 18-23, but the details will take a few more days to iron out.

By early February, the large Western NHEM ridge is forecast to retrograde towards the Aleutian Islands. This fits well within the Pacific Ridge regime, supporting troughing in the Pacific NW, a positive NAO, and a tendency for more ridging in the South and Eastern US over time.

Pretty wild to see the ECMWF EPS showing moderate probabilities of >1” snowfall across such a large swath of the Southeast and Eastern US over the next 10 days. This is a highly anomalous pattern with deep cold and the potential for snow much further south than usual!

Mood

❄️👀

First crack at snowfall ranges for NYC. I went with 3 to 6 as the most likely range, but higher amounts can’t be ruled out especially as confidence in the location of deformation banding increases.

Thank you, David Gerbino. I feel strongly that the future of meteorology communication lies in transparency and visualization - box and whisker plots over snowfall maps are just one example!

Posted an update on the snowfall forecast for NYC on TikTok, head there to see the latest!

Still iced coffee weather

Let them cook

100 days until May 1st 🌪️

If you enjoy snow in NYC, these are The Bad Times™

It has been a quiet winter so far in the N Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley but I suspect that is about to change. Retrograding ridging in the high latitudes will aid in the development of a thermal gradient across the Northern 1/3, encouraging winter storm chances Feb 5-20.

Oh man. This sucks.

This is absolutely disgusting. It’s not reporting and it’s not journalism, either. This man is in a state of shock after finding out that his wife was aboard a plane that crashed, and you’re asking him to show their last text message together for the cameras.

Violent, loud tornado earlier west of Watertown, SD. #sdwx

Another view of the violent tornado west of Watertown earlier as it transitioned into a drillbit in an open field with debris falling around the vehicle. #sdwx

Thought storm chasing season was over? Think again. An anomalous pattern for early August will transpire over the next 10 days, with the mid/upper level jet displaced unusually far south into the Northern/High Plains and overlapping impressive moisture and instability.