Residents of NATO countries are much more likely to support defending Bosnia, Finland, Georgia or Sweden militarily from Russian invasion if the targeted country is a member of NATO, according to a survey of 14K voters in 13 NATO countries. In PNAS Nexus: ow.ly/gZjH50Pgbp0

My latest piece in the Washington Post with @hgoemans , Alex Weisiger, Michael Joseph, Page Fortna, and Thomas Dolan.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

Putin is a war criminal who deserves to face justice - but threatening to prosecute him is also risky. My new @monkeycageblog piece with Alexander Downes: washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

If you’re hoping that the war in Ukraine will lead to a popular revolution in Russia, here is why it won’t. #StopPutin #StandWithUkraine 1/n

Important thread on coup prospect against Putin.

Based on my JCR research on wartime coups, I will also say that the prospect of coups depends on whether coups come from Putin’s inner circle who are seen as connected to his war decision, or those outside the inner circle. 1/9

Must-read from ProfTalmadge in @monkeycageblog on what the Putin nuclear alert means. washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

The partisan unity on Ukraine/Russia in these polls is good news - though the split on NATO could be a problem news.gallup.com/poll/390140/pu…

Useful piece for understanding the (lack of) constraints on Putin by 2 scholars who wrote books on autocrats and war: Jessica Weeks & Jeff Colgan. Not all autocrats are alike: Putin is a 'petroaggressor,' a personalist dictator with oil. @monkeycageblog washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…