Large Cap Growth stocks have beaten Small Cap Value by 17.5% per year for the last 3 years. Prior times that witnessed this: 1991, 1999 and 2020. Each of those episodes subsequently gave way to a complete flip in the performance dynamics, with crescendos in 1994, 2003 and 2023.

The bond market's quiet rally since May 21 has not taken real estate stocks with it. Counter to historic trends when bond yields are falling, the sector has underperformed the S&P 500. Maybe a breach of 4% on the 10-year T-Note is the "thing" that gooses real estate stocks.

Nine consecutive quarters have now seen the NY Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey get better than the previous quarter. Let me say it again: NINE. Banks as a collective are now easing lending standards. For those thinking doom and gloom for the labor market, reconsider. 👇

Question for FinTwit: whose pod should I be crashing with these macro charts? I can talk about this stuff forever. Let me know which ones you think are a fit.

No jobs report today but a lot to discuss on Behind the Markets with Prof Siegel and our Deep Rooted Macro team Samuel Rines Jeff Weniger + A special segment w/ Prof Bob Korajczyk focused on Intangible Investments research For weekend pod queues: open.spotify.com/episode/3C2uau…

I made a new chart. It says rotate out of Financials, into Consumer Staples. When "Prices Paid" peaks in the Philly, NY, KC and Dallas Fed surveys, Financials (banks, insurance, etc.) start losing to Staples (candy bars, diapers, and so on). Have a great weekend.

"What keeps you up at night?" Until recently, I wouldn't have said this. But the market is barking, and you pay attention when a dog barks. Listed private equity stocks (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, and Carlyle) have been collectively weak since Sept. 18. That is not good.

The rally off the April lows has left Quality stocks behind. The S&P 500 Quality Index has lagged the market by 10.4 percentage points over the last 6 months, akin to observations from 1999.

That is a 14.5% drop in private equity stocks (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle) in just 3 weeks, while at the same time the S&P 500 just hit another high. I don't know if this means something ominous. I just don't know. All I can give you is this: "Jeff says this is weird."

Any good theories out there? Interesting observation from Jeff

Jeff Weniger Followed (because you said "I don't know"). Refreshing to see that for a change.

First off, I don't proclaim to know if Ares Capital, the BDC, is going to go up or down. I'm using it as an indicator for the broad market because we have stress in BDCs now and what I do for a living is look at the broad market. I'm using ARCC because we have a pre-GFC IPO to

I've been tweeting some scary private equity and private credit charts, so let's have a bullish moment. When Japan's leading indicators tick up, that has historically dragged the US Conference Board Leading Index higher.

The S&P's record high was just a few days ago, so it is important to point out that stocks of the private equity houses and also the traditional fund shops have been refusing to rally. The bull run has had broad participation across sectors. But this? This is unhealthy.

JPM published a table with the 27 themes that they intend to invest their $1.5 trillion over the coming years. Which line item would make a viable new ETF? It wouldn't be the first time WisdomTree launched a product from crowdsourced feedback. Thanks to all for engaging.

☎️CALL IN - TODAY 10AM ET☎️ @JanetOnTheMoney & Jeff Weniger want your thoughts and questions on Markets, your portfolio, your wallet, 2025 outlook and more! 🤳CALL IN 844-942-7866🤳 🔊TUNE IN ON @SiriusXM 132🔊

This week pod discussion: Cockroaches contained? We get the Professor’s take, Jeff Weniger Samuel Rines open.spotify.com/episode/2ff2T3…

When is copper going to join gold and silver? The gold-to-copper ratio cut through 800 like a hot knife through butter.

From a pure asset allocation perspective, it is abundantly clear that gold has been the diversifier this year, not bitcoin. One of these two is trading with the NASDAQ, and you know exactly which one it is.

I saw more of this concept on FinTwit this week than all of the last four years combined.