``unwelcome'' in Powell's remarks today has deep resonance at the Fed and the FOMC. Here is what Powell said: ``the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.'' This term was first deployed by Greenspan in congressional testimony in 2003. 6/

Can't see why McDonald's didn't make the cut...

Data confirm the Q1 inflation jump was noise around a cooling trend, hard to see why the Fed doesn't revert at least to the March baseline of three cuts though it should arguably be more with unemployment running above their forecast

While many of us are enjoying #LaborDay as a day off, farm workers are laboring in the fields. Yesi sent this pic while working in the sweet potatoes in Merced County CA. They work for minimum wage while bringing this vegetable to our tables. #WeFeedYou

Just a reminder: what moves the unemployment rate is the job-finding rate (as opposed to layoffs) See Shimer's 2012 paper (among many others!) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

About half of the increased flow into unemployment in 2024 relative to 2017-2019 comes from labor market re-entrants not being absorbed as quickly which explains why jobless claims have not risen notably since they are ineligible, once you see that employment stability is lost

The labor market is still fine but cooling quickly--the UR was 4.22% after jumping to 4.25% in July, the rise is real and should not be discounted. The Fed needs to act to protect full employment

I just don't get the argument that we should care less about rising unemployment because labor supply is strong--full employment means everyone who wants to work can find work

I don't know who needs to hear this but you can't use immigration to explain everything you don't understand in the data

Researchers at UT Austin say they have discovered an antibody that could effectively fight against all variants of COVID-19, along with other related viruses. l8r.it/ZDh5

Last fall Gov Waller said he could support rate cuts by March citing the Taylor Rule, which now says rates should be 75bps-200bps ⬇️ but he is now reluctant to front load. It will take a year to get where they should be at a 25bp pace…what changed? 🤔 export.highcharts.com

It's that time again! Express your views on monetary policy in our Shadow Survey & in return you will see results w/ the views of > 100 market participants this Friday ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. There are *views* out there so please share yours! {survey.alchemer.com/s3/8002443/MPP…)

In June the FOMC expected that when the unemployment rate hit 4.2% and core PCE inflation was 2.3% y/y the target fed funds rate range would be at 4.0%-4.25%, seems pretty straightforward to explain a pull forward of rate cuts at the outset w/o looking panicked