Juan Bernardo Tobar (@jbtobar_) 's Twitter Profile
Juan Bernardo Tobar

@jbtobar_

I am @ConvexValue. I build tech. options // math // rust // philosophy

ID: 3068888327

linkhttps://ConvexValue.com calendar_today04-03-2015 00:02:52

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jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPX Implied Volatility Term Structure next 10 expiry previous 25 days 🟡today 🔴yesterday 🔵⚪️previous days -iv popped and looks to remain elevated today & tomorrow compared to the previous several weeks. -falls into next week then rebounds into contango lower than prior

SPX Implied Volatility Term Structure 

next 10 expiry
previous 25 days 
🟡today
🔴yesterday
🔵⚪️previous days

-iv popped and looks to remain elevated today & tomorrow compared to the previous several weeks.  
-falls  into next week then rebounds into contango lower than prior
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPY IV Skew next 12 expiry 20 delta 🔵put 🟡call 🔴skew ⚪️atm -volatility falls as skew narrows headed into early next week. 20 delta puts & calls & at the money iv is very tight suggesting indecision and a narrow range outlook. -next week iv rises with jobs & inflation

SPY IV Skew

next 12 expiry

20 delta      

🔵put 🟡call 🔴skew ⚪️atm

-volatility falls as skew narrows headed into early next week. 20 delta puts & calls & at the money iv is very tight suggesting indecision and a narrow range outlook.
-next week iv rises with jobs & inflation
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Market Flow Ratio top volume & value ranked by aggregate value red calls =🐻 green calls=🐂 red puts =🐂 green puts=🐻 s&p complex sits atop the pile today with tech & silver. most of the leaderboard has bearish volume and mixed premiums rn. lotsa downside protection and call

Market Flow Ratio

top volume & value 
ranked by aggregate value

red calls =🐻 green calls=🐂
red puts =🐂 green puts=🐻

s&p complex sits atop the pile today with tech & silver. most of the leaderboard has bearish volume and mixed premiums rn. lotsa downside protection and call
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPX Dealer Delta Surface ☎️ -Market Makers sell to hedge as price moves above current spot. down to roughly 5900 they buy to hedge their book deltas. below 5900, market makers sell to hedge and will assist any downside hustle but the intensity of hedging is less below 5900 than

SPX Dealer Delta Surface ☎️

-Market Makers sell to hedge as price moves above current spot. down to roughly 5900 they buy to hedge their book deltas. below 5900, market makers sell to hedge and will assist any downside hustle but the intensity of hedging is less below 5900 than
Robert P. Balan (@robertpbalan1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Predictive Anylytic Models (PAM) Robert P. Balan Jun 5, 2025 5:42 PM CEST -- 2 hrs after NY open  Bullish, with early consolidation risks. June 5 0DTE likely to see SPX consolidate between 5950–6000, with a 40% chance of holding (MM support, call volume), a 25% chance of

Predictive Anylytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Jun 5, 2025 5:42 PM CEST -- 2 hrs after NY open

Bullish, with early consolidation risks. June 5 0DTE likely to see SPX consolidate between 5950–6000, with a 40% chance of holding (MM support, call volume), a 25% chance of
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPX Option Scanner 0dte 📡 ranked by net sold volume - lotsa 5950-45-40 puts with net sold premiums in the previous 15 min. & the volume to match. those could be opening short put trades or the closing of what were originally long put trades. 🪜 Convex Value $spx $spy $es_f

SPX Option Scanner 0dte 📡

ranked by net sold volume 

- lotsa 5950-45-40 puts with net sold premiums in the previous 15 min. & the volume to match. those could be opening short put trades or the closing of what were originally long put trades. 

🪜 <a href="/ConvexValue/">Convex Value</a> 
$spx $spy $es_f
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPX Dealer Delta Hedging Map📍 - spot sits inside a wide range with minimal dealer hedging requirement. price could move in either direction without the input of mechanical hedging flows. -to the downside we sit on a pile of 0dte negative gramma providing support. below 5940,

SPX Dealer Delta Hedging Map📍

- spot sits inside a wide range with minimal dealer hedging requirement. price could move in either direction without the input of mechanical hedging flows. 
-to the downside we sit on a pile of 0dte negative gramma providing support. below 5940,
Convex Value (@convexvalue) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$TSLA 😬 Top volume for tomorrow's expiration on strike 300 puts. Top volume for June 6 on strike 200 puts. Command: joy tsla volm exp=1-4

$TSLA 😬

Top volume for tomorrow's expiration on strike 300 puts.

Top volume for June 6 on strike 200 puts.

Command:

joy tsla volm exp=1-4
ConvexSwan (@vighnaraj2022) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$NQ The following five days picture is mixed. 📌 Summary ✅ Structure remains top-heavy with large delta and charm decay pressures 🧨 Volatility expansion triggers dealer selling reflex ⚠️ Gamma support is limited to 21,600–21,700, a weak zone 🔮 Key theme: Options decay +

$NQ 

The following five days picture is mixed.

📌 Summary

✅ Structure remains top-heavy with large delta and charm decay pressures

🧨 Volatility expansion triggers dealer selling reflex

⚠️ Gamma support is limited to 21,600–21,700, a weak zone

🔮 Key theme: Options decay +
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

TSLA Open Interest Change overnight OI change for 6/6 expiry 🔵puts 🟡calls lotsa puts added across the chain from current spot on down and then up to 310. calls also added above spot and then down to 270 with 250 a standout itm strike. increased calls > increased puts

TSLA Open Interest Change

overnight OI change for 6/6 expiry 
🔵puts 🟡calls 

lotsa puts added across the chain from current spot on down and then up to 310. calls also added above spot and then down to 270 with 250 a standout itm strike. 

increased calls &gt; increased puts
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

IBIT Open Interest Change overnight OI change for 6/6 expiry 🔵puts 🟡calls puts & calls added below spot. above spot, puts & calls taken off. decreased puts > decreased calls 1.3:1 🎃 Convex Value $ibit $btc 🍑

IBIT Open Interest Change

overnight OI change for 6/6 expiry 
🔵puts 🟡calls 

puts &amp; calls added below spot. 
above spot, puts &amp; calls taken off. 

decreased puts &gt; decreased calls 1.3:1

🎃 <a href="/ConvexValue/">Convex Value</a> 
$ibit $btc 🍑
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPY Implied Volatility fixed strike iv smile 0dte -mostly call & put vols are intertwined with deep itm puts taking over above 605. -below current spot, both rise consistently down the chain and above spot they dip to 605 and then rise. 🎛️ Convex Value $spx $spy $es_f 🔌

SPY Implied Volatility 

fixed strike iv smile 0dte

-mostly call &amp; put vols are intertwined with deep itm puts taking over above 605.
-below current spot, both rise consistently down the chain and above spot they dip to 605 and then rise.

🎛️ <a href="/ConvexValue/">Convex Value</a> 
 $spx $spy $es_f 🔌
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPX Delta Notional 0dte -calls dominate up & down the chain today. otm calls heavy up to 6050. itm puts begin to edge out thecalls at 6080. 6100 strike is balanced right now and sticks out. calls > puts 7.6:1 ⚱️Convex Value $spy $spx $es_f 🪦

SPX Delta Notional 0dte 

-calls dominate up &amp; down the chain today. otm calls heavy up to 6050. itm puts begin to edge out thecalls at 6080. 6100 strike is balanced right now and sticks out.

calls &gt; puts 7.6:1

⚱️<a href="/ConvexValue/">Convex Value</a> 
$spy  $spx  $es_f 🪦
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPY Net Flow net volume & net premium ⚪️price -put premiums & volume are net bought as calls premiums are deadlining net sold as volume chops with pa 📫 Convex Value $spx $spy $es_f 🏷️

SPY Net Flow

net volume &amp; net premium
⚪️price

-put premiums &amp; volume are net bought as calls premiums are deadlining net sold as volume chops with pa 

📫 <a href="/ConvexValue/">Convex Value</a> 
$spx $spy $es_f 🏷️
Robert P. Balan (@robertpbalan1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM) Robert P. Balan Jun 6, 2025 9:45 AM CET (Europe Open)  ESM25 June 6 0DTE Period Options Data Analysis: ESM25=5971.25 The extreme put dominance creates asymmetric risk/reward favoring upside, with multiple support mechanisms intact (theta time

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Jun 6, 2025 9:45 AM CET (Europe Open)

ESM25 June 6 0DTE Period Options Data Analysis:
ESM25=5971.25

The extreme put dominance creates asymmetric risk/reward favoring upside, with multiple support mechanisms intact (theta time
jc (@_justinjc_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

SPX Dealer Delta Hedging Map📍 -there is a path of least resistance stretching 5975-6015. above 6020 dealer selling to hedge picks up with positive delta and gamma creating a resistive headwind. -if we fall thru the 0dte negative gamma pile currently atm, dealers commence

SPX Dealer Delta Hedging Map📍

-there is a path of least resistance stretching 5975-6015. above 6020 dealer selling to hedge picks up with positive delta and gamma creating a resistive headwind. 
-if we fall thru the 0dte negative gamma pile currently atm, dealers commence