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When participants trade on known outcomes, the market breaks. That’s why we void those trades.

Prediction markets are like insurance for beliefs. House burns down? You get a payout. Your candidate loses? Premium's gone. Difference? Anyone can be the insurer.

PSA: An 80% prediction losing doesn't mean the market failed. It means the 20% happened. If your 80% predictions always win, you're not running a prediction market - you're running a crystal ball.

This is what happens when a niche becomes infrastructure.

Take any sportsbook. Let users set their own odds. Add politics, economics, tech. Allow trading positions. Stop banning winners. Add API access. Remove the slot machines. Boom — you’ve invented prediction markets.

betting exchanges proved the infrastructure works. prediction markets prove the applications matter. same technology, evolved purpose.

The CFTC regulating prediction markets makes sense. They're derivatives contracts on real-world events—binary options with better price discovery. Financial infrastructure, not entertainment products.

Q: What’s the difference between a sportsbook and a prediction market? A sportsbook sets the odds. A market discovers them. In a sportsbook, the house wins when you lose. In a market, prices move until buyers and sellers agree. Transparency replaces asymmetry — and that’s a

I have this recurring fantasy that I’m always one “mark as spam” away from never getting another recruiter email

One thing we’ve noticed: prediction markets with faster resolution times tend to have more liquidity. When traders get feedback quickly, they can learn and improve their models faster. Sports markets close in hours; political ones can take months or years. That changes how

we're in the middle of a transition from institution first to retail first financial ecosystem and hiring at the firms is going to follow that trend as well. from the prediction market world, trading event futures doesn't map neatly to tradfi so retail is taking a lead here.

The amount of crypto ads in NYC is wild

With the recent pullback in AI and tech stock valuations, there are a lot of non-technical talking heads opining. What they’re missing: 1. AI is still under-hyped. 2. OpenAI will lose its dominance as the consumer frontend to AI. 3. Companies will take time to figure out how to

Everyone’s rushing to build prediction markets for everything. They’re missing why elections and sports are liquid: repeatable events, clear outcomes, shared information. The long tail is where markets go to die.

There's something about the repeatability of the events too. Soccer eg are often the same 22 players, they play many times in a season, the rules of the event are well understood (red card/abandoned game eg). Each geopolitical event requires bespoke rules and is obv not

Another sign that prediction markets are going mainstream. The category is much bigger than people think.