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Excellent conversation at the Reagan National Economic Forum between Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Jason Furman moderated by Kyla Scanlon

Serious question: if you believe there was >25% chance that Dario Amodei was right about AI eliminating tens of millions of jobs over the next 1-5 years including half of all entry-level white collar jobs. What would government do now? What would it do if this really happened?

I'm having a hard time getting worked up about the dollar decline given: 1. It remains very strong 2. Much of the fall is reversing the earlier run-up 3. We've seen this type of move many times before (To be clear, some financial correlations & risk spreads are a bit worrying.)

RIP Stan. Stan was my mentor and my friend. He was an outstanding economist, an outstanding policy maker, but even more importantly, a great human being. Science, commitment, honesty, and humility at the service of humankind. piie.com/publications/p…

I first got to know Stan Fischer through his graduate macro textbook w/ Olivier. Then got to know him personally and learned so much about economics and policymaking. He will live on through so many others, those shown here and many more. May his memory be a blessing.

No one had more cumulative influence on the macroeconomic policy makers of the last generation than Stanley Fischer. Central Bank governors Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi and Kazuo Ueda were his students, as were many others like me, who served in other capacities. We all were shaped

If I had to choose between models or Stan Fischer to run monetary policy, I’d choose Fischer. Otherwise, give me models. This running joke among applied macroeconomists gives you a sense of Fischer’s influence and the respect he deservedly earned.

Stan was a great teacher and a great person. He inherited the mantle from Solow of the person PhD students most wanted to be like when they grew up. We will sorely miss his sensibility in difficult times. nytimes.com/2025/06/01/bus…

Stan Fischer has died. The legendary and influential economist, former vice-chair of the Fed, #2 at the IMF and governor of the Bank of Israel, was also personable and funny. A few passages from my obit: wsj.com/economy/centra…

Russ isn’t using current policy as he claims. He’s using “current policy for provisions enacted in 2017 but current law for temporary provisions included in this bill.” Then in 2028 and 2029 he’ll use “current policy for provisions for which I used current law in 2025.”

New from The Budget Lab: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth