Jason Corley (@jasoncorley78) 's Twitter Profile
Jason Corley

@jasoncorley78

Co-Founder, lead pollster, and election forecaster at @QuantusInsights / quantus.substack.com

ID: 1854963633358278656

linkhttp://quantusinsights.org calendar_today08-11-2024 19:06:20

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You should definitely read this. We did our best to break it down around all the math and formulas. There's a signal in there and the today's Emerson poll validated it.

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Emerson and others who are showing it close or tied may very well be right. We'll know for ourselves soon enough. Maybe things have changed since our early September poll. 🤷‍♂️

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See the results of our New Jersey govenor poll. Lots of movement since our Labor Day poll. The direction is toward Jack Ciattarelli. quantusinsights.org/f/cracks-in-th…

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New Jersey’s 2025 general election features a marquee governor’s race between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R). So far: Net GOP Shift in Mail: +7 points redder overall vs 2024 • Mail ballots mailed: Sept 13 • Early in-person voting starts: Oct 25 • Key Mail-In

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Plotted by each poll’s Sherrill–Ciatt margin by mid-field date and added a 3-poll weighted rolling average to show direction of travel. Current sample-weighted average (LV only) across the set: 🔵Sherrill: 47.5% 🔴Ciattarelli: 42.3% —Margin: Sherrill +5.3

Plotted by each poll’s Sherrill–Ciatt margin by mid-field date and added a 3-poll weighted rolling average to show direction of travel. 

Current sample-weighted average (LV only) across the set:
🔵Sherrill: 47.5%
đź”´Ciattarelli: 42.3%
—Margin: Sherrill +5.3
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Trump Approval by Pollster (2025) LOWESS smoothing shows consistent clusters: 🔺 RMG Research & Rasmussen — upper tier 🔻 Economist/YouGov & Reuters/Ipsos — lower tier Morning Consult, Quantus Insights, & Harvard-Harris anchor near the center Differences reflect house effects,

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To say that mainland Puerto Rican voters are outraged over the island's electrical grid is an understatement. Trump's recent actions has gotten widespread approval from the Puerto Rican voters we polled.

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Today’s poll marks the first GOP lead over Democrats in the Generic Ballot since March 27, per Quantus polling. For October we show Republicans 43% to Democrats 42%.

Today’s poll marks the first GOP lead over Democrats in the Generic Ballot since March 27, per Quantus polling.

For October we show Republicans 43% to Democrats 42%.
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We released our first Trump job approval poll for October along with congressional ballot, Hamas-Israel peace deal, and other issues. Be sure to check it out.