As much I oppose Biden's Middle East policy, I disagree profoundly that Trump's policy during a second term would have been (or would be) better. The evidence from 2016-2020 suggests the exact opposite.

$8B in military aid for Taiwan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in China for tense talks.

What happens next? Start forecasting.

Questions on Taiwan, US-China tensions, nuclear risk & AI developed with (((James Acton))) & other subject-matter experts:
metaculus.com/project/taiwan/

Not using sanctions as the first and last tool of foreign policy would be a good start.

Famously, of course, tighter-knit college campuses during the Vietnam war were entirely free from large-scale unrest.

The same guy who thinks the presidency gives him immunity from criminal prosecution also argued that being a private citizen meant he couldn’t be impeached. No accountability, ever, under any circumstances.

If, and only if, Ulrich Kühn and Tobias Bunde show up in the same room at the same time, I will believe that they're not the same person.

So, German friends, let me know whether one of them cancels...

🚨 My latest out now in The Nonproliferation Review (NPR) 🚨 'Messaging and the bomb: public attitudes toward nuclear proliferation'

I analyze results from an original survey of US public opinion on AUKUS nuclear-powered subs and the Iran Deal (1/n)

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

After last night's news... now more than ever! Me in Foreign Policy on why the United States shouldn't give Israel a blank check of a security guarantee.

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr…

This is a direct denial from a regime official:

No missiles were fired into #Iran from outside its territory

There were drones but they were shot down.

A telling, early take on this from within Iran. Risk of immediate Iranian escalation from this event looks low.

Here's my Foreign Policy op-ed and thread from earlier today on the Israel-Iran crisis. With Israel having now reportedly retaliated, I believe my advice for the U.S. is more salient than ever.

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr…

I'm relieved the target doesn't appear to be the nuclear facility in Isfahan, though the intended message may be 'it could be next time.' Definite potential for further escalation.

To keep up-to-date with developments involving Iran (and Russia!) follow the multilingual Nicole!