intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile
intrinsic valuator

@valueintrinsicf

Equity analyst focused on intrinsic valuation | DFCF modeling • Monte Carlo simulations • Competitive moats • Long-term fundamentals

ID: 1914021366145089536

calendar_today20-04-2025 18:20:38

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intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Top-10 high-quality companies starting 2026 with a significant discount wrt their intrinsic value. $META $JD $VID $CI $ROG $TEP $SL $PYPL $ADBE $KSPI #Investing #value #Stock

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TSMC just dropped the most insane earnings report in industrial history. $TSM manufactures the most complex hardware in history with the profitability of a software company. And they say they expect to keep this pace for the next years. Masterclass of MOAT. #AI #China #Taiwan

TSMC just dropped the most insane earnings report in industrial history.

$TSM manufactures the most complex hardware in history with the profitability of a software company. And they say they expect to keep this pace for the next years.

Masterclass of MOAT.

#AI #China #Taiwan
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I have updated my intrinsic valuation of TSMC: The market isn't blind. The price of $TSM is not just "paying for quality", it discounts a decade of flawless execution. Greatest business on Earth? Yes. Alpha left at this price? Doubtful. Try yourself: 👇 dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app

I have updated my intrinsic valuation of TSMC:

The market isn't blind. The price of $TSM is not just "paying for quality", it discounts a decade of flawless execution.
Greatest business on Earth? Yes. Alpha left at this price? Doubtful.

Try yourself: 👇
dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Investing is a psychological game as much as a financial one. 🧠📉 Avoid the following psychological traps and focus on performing a thorough and conservative valuation. To stop guessing and start measuring, you can use this: dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app #Investing #Greenwald

Investing is a psychological game as much as a financial one. 🧠📉 
Avoid the following psychological traps and focus on performing a thorough and conservative valuation.

 To stop guessing and start measuring, you can use this:
dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app 

#Investing  #Greenwald
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Stop gambling on growth stories. Greenwald’s method builds value in 3 layers: 1- Asset Value: Reproduction cost. 2- Earnings Power Value: EPV= Earnings\WACC 3- Growth: Only counts if ROIC > WACC Find a MOAT where EPV > NAV, then value it🛡️ dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app

Stop gambling on growth stories.
Greenwald’s method builds value in 3 layers:
1- Asset Value: Reproduction cost.
2- Earnings Power Value: EPV= Earnings\WACC
3- Growth: Only counts if ROIC > WACC 

Find a MOAT where EPV > NAV, then value it🛡️
dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Current $LVMH situation: ► Qualitative: The fall after the post-COVID boom is not yet recovered and creates uncertainty on its MOAT. ► Quantitative: The stock does not look cheap. With the current situation, the median intrinsic value is 447.96€ (std. deviation 75€). #LVMH

Current $LVMH situation:

► Qualitative: The fall after the post-COVID boom is not yet recovered and creates uncertainty on its MOAT.

► Quantitative: The stock does not look cheap.
With the current situation, the median intrinsic value is 447.96€ (std. deviation 75€).

#LVMH
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$ASML delivers record FY2025 results: Revenue: €32.7B (+16% YoY) Earnings: €9.6B (+25% YoY) OCF: €12.7B (+13% YoY) Backlog: €38.8B (+8% YoY) EUV unit avrg. price: 250m (+25% YoY) 2026 Outlook: Sales €34B -€39B. 2030 Outlook: Sales €44B -€60B. #ASML #AI #StocksToBuy

intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Is $ASML cheap? I ran an intrinsic valuation after their 2025 results. These are the numbers: Price: €1200 Fair Value: €910 (€120 std. dev.) To justify the current price, you must bet the moat lasts forever (WACC > ROIC) or that it will grow >20% over the next 10 years.

Is $ASML cheap?  
I ran an intrinsic valuation after their 2025 results. These are the numbers:  
Price: €1200  
Fair Value: €910 (€120 std. dev.)

To justify the current price, you must bet the moat lasts forever (WACC > ROIC) or that it will grow >20% over the next 10 years.
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Statistical Equilibrium. My analysis shows $META trading at fair value. -Price: $738.31 -Value: $748.48 It's pricing an upcoming period of a huge reinvestment rate with high growth. The question is whether they will perform and deliver the high expected returns afterwards. #AI

Statistical Equilibrium.
My analysis shows $META trading at fair value.
-Price: $738.31
-Value: $748.48

It's pricing an upcoming period of a huge reinvestment rate with high growth. The question is whether they will perform and deliver the high expected returns afterwards.

#AI
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Just performed a valuation after Alphabet's $GOOGL results: Mean value: 266$ Current: 333$ Higher ROIC on the huge CAPEX or other bets could surprise. But the 20% difference suggests caution. Alphabet's a beast, but price demands flawless execution. What's your view? #GOOGLE

Just performed a valuation after Alphabet's $GOOGL results:
Mean value: 266$
Current: 333$

Higher ROIC on the huge CAPEX or other bets could surprise. But the 20% difference suggests caution.
Alphabet's a beast, but price demands flawless execution. 
What's your view?

#GOOGLE
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Analysis of $CI post-FY25 📊 Price: $292 | Value: $621 Upside: +113% 🚀 Moat: Becoming the biggest PBM provider and with better MCR than the competitors. Super-stable FCF and with >5% of shares repurchased yearly, plus dividend. #ValueInvesting #Cigna

Analysis of $CI post-FY25 📊

Price: $292 | Value: $621
Upside: +113% 🚀

Moat: Becoming the biggest PBM provider and with better MCR than the competitors.
Super-stable FCF and with >5% of shares repurchased yearly, plus dividend.

#ValueInvesting #Cigna
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$ADBE is severely mispriced. The market is pricing in an AI apocalypse for a CF machine with wide moat. 📊 Quality Score: 8.6/10 📉 Price: $258.61 🎯 Intrinsic Value: $364.89 📈 Upside: +41.1% Check my hypotheses and run the MC simulation with your own dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app

$ADBE is severely mispriced. The market is pricing in an AI apocalypse for a CF machine with wide moat.

📊 Quality Score: 8.6/10
📉 Price: $258.61 
🎯 Intrinsic Value: $364.89 
📈 Upside: +41.1%

Check my hypotheses and run the MC simulation with your own
dcfmontecarlo.streamlit.app
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$VID latest results: Market´s flows are missing a fortress balance sheet, master capital allocator and LatAm expansion. 📊 Price: €80.00 🎯 Value: €111 🚀 Upside: 40% 🛡️ Undervaluation Prob: 97.6% ⚙️ Quality 8/10 Cash flow will eventually silence the noise. 🍷 #Vidrala

$VID latest results:  
Market´s flows are missing a fortress balance sheet, master capital allocator and LatAm expansion.
📊 Price: €80.00 
🎯 Value: €111 
🚀 Upside: 40% 
🛡️ Undervaluation Prob: 97.6% 
⚙️ Quality 8/10
 Cash flow will eventually silence the noise. 🍷 #Vidrala
intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

"Our owners’ time horizon extends beyond the tenure of any individual CEO. 20 years from now, when I will have just a fraction of the tenure that Warren had, my intention is that you – or your descendants – will be proud that your company is even stronger" Greg Abel as $BRK CEO

intrinsic valuator (@valueintrinsicf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Leonardo $LDO Analysis: 📉 Intrinsic Value: ~€54 💎 Quality score: 7.5/10 💡 Verdict: HOLD Great business benefiting from the defense supercycle. Its CEO is executing an impeccable transformation of the company. But at €64 there's no margin, it's already priced for perfection

Leonardo $LDO Analysis:
📉 Intrinsic Value: ~€54
💎 Quality score: 7.5/10
💡 Verdict: HOLD

Great business benefiting from the defense supercycle. Its CEO is executing an impeccable transformation of the company. But at €64 there's no margin, it's already priced for perfection