It’s not rock bottom until it’s a Mariners game you’re watching

$btu is a multidimensional company. Unfortunately, all dimensions are currently headed in the same direction:

IMO, $btu is at an interesting inflection point. Upside 10%, downside 30%.

Those watching have probably noticed plv futures are pretty much moving in chunks of $25. Expect a consolidation at $175 and then an attempt to test $150. Gulp

$180/182

If there’s ZERO spot sales - what do these quotes from last earnings call infer happens to $hcc sales vs production?

This guy makes me look like a raging bull

Unfortunately, $hcc exhibits some of this same curve.

Let’s play ‘what if’. What if $amr follows its 2019 path. See the attached - in 2019 Amr lost 37.5% of its peak before August earnings call. Same for 2024. Between Aug and Nov earnings, lost an additional 32.5%. So far around 18% for 2024. 32.5% will put it at $135 by Nov call.

I’m curious on my assumptions for domestic pricing so I went back to 2019 and ran a comparison analysis. I’m getting $120+/- $8 as the result which would be significantly less than I was expecting

If the past is any indicator of the present, $AMR will now rally to $230/240 ish.

As much as it would be good for the companies, my gut feel is I’ll take the under on $150 blended domestic.